Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects close alignment with the latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models, which converge on a high temperature near 73°F for Austin on May 2—well below the early-May climatological average of 83°F. Persistent cloud cover and scattered shower chances from a lingering weak upper trough over Texas limit insolation and peak heating, differentiating the 42% implied probability for 74°F or higher from 33% for 72-73°F; subtle model spreads hinge on afternoon boundary layer mixing and potential partial clearing. Historical May 2 highs average in the low 80s, but current synoptic patterns favor moderation. Watch NWS updates and 00Z model runs tonight for refinements ahead of resolution based on official Austin-Bergstrom observations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Austin on May 2?
Highest temperature in Austin on May 2?
74°F or higher 42%
72-73°F 33%
70-71°F 15%
68-69°F 3.3%
NUEVO
$29,766 Vol.
NUEVO
$29,766 Vol.
2 may 2026
55°F or below
<1%
56-57°F
<1%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
1%
68-69°F
3%
70-71°F
15%
72-73°F
33%
74°F or higher
42%
74°F or higher 42%
72-73°F 33%
70-71°F 15%
68-69°F 3.3%
NUEVO
$29,766 Vol.
NUEVO
$29,766 Vol.
2 may 2026
55°F or below
$6,309 Vol.
<1%
56-57°F
$5,170 Vol.
<1%
58-59°F
$3,491 Vol.
<1%
60-61°F
$3,604 Vol.
<1%
62-63°F
$1,109 Vol.
<1%
64-65°F
$2,102 Vol.
<1%
66-67°F
$2,045 Vol.
1%
68-69°F
$1,341 Vol.
3%
70-71°F
$1,272 Vol.
15%
72-73°F
$1,123 Vol.
33%
74°F or higher
$2,201 Vol.
42%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects close alignment with the latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models, which converge on a high temperature near 73°F for Austin on May 2—well below the early-May climatological average of 83°F. Persistent cloud cover and scattered shower chances from a lingering weak upper trough over Texas limit insolation and peak heating, differentiating the 42% implied probability for 74°F or higher from 33% for 72-73°F; subtle model spreads hinge on afternoon boundary layer mixing and potential partial clearing. Historical May 2 highs average in the low 80s, but current synoptic patterns favor moderation. Watch NWS updates and 00Z model runs tonight for refinements ahead of resolution based on official Austin-Bergstrom observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 30, 2026, 12:21 AM ET
Volumen
$29,766Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:21 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects close alignment with the latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models, which converge on a high temperature near 73°F for Austin on May 2—well below the early-May climatological average of 83°F. Persistent cloud cover and scattered shower chances from a lingering weak upper trough over Texas limit insolation and peak heating, differentiating the 42% implied probability for 74°F or higher from 33% for 72-73°F; subtle model spreads hinge on afternoon boundary layer mixing and potential partial clearing. Historical May 2 highs average in the low 80s, but current synoptic patterns favor moderation. Watch NWS updates and 00Z model runs tonight for refinements ahead of resolution based on official Austin-Bergstrom observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$29,766Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:21 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects close alignment with the latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models, which converge on a high temperature near 73°F for Austin on May 2—well below the early-May climatological average of 83°F. Persistent cloud cover and scattered shower chances from a lingering weak upper trough over Texas limit insolation and peak heating, differentiating the 42% implied probability for 74°F or higher from 33% for 72-73°F; subtle model spreads hinge on afternoon boundary layer mixing and potential partial clearing. Historical May 2 highs average in the low 80s, but current synoptic patterns favor moderation. Watch NWS updates and 00Z model runs tonight for refinements ahead of resolution based on official Austin-Bergstrom observations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes