Trader consensus on Polymarket splits evenly between 17°C and 18°C as Ankara's highest temperature on May 15, reflecting tight clustering in short-range forecast models like GFS and ECMWF amid expected persistent cloud cover and scattered showers. Current meteorological guidance from sources including the Turkish State Meteorological Service and international outlets projects daytime highs near 19°C under a cool air mass and low-pressure influence, capping peaks below climatological mid-May norms of 20–22°C. Differentiating factors include timing of afternoon instability—earlier clearing favors 18°C, prolonged overcast 17°C—highlighting inherent uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and solar insolation. Evening model updates and real-time observations will sharpen resolution before the daily maximum, typically mid-afternoon.