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Política·Elecciones Globales

¿Ganador de las elecciones parciales de Galway-West?

icon for ¿Ganador de las elecciones parciales de Galway-West?
Política·Elecciones Globales

¿Ganador de las elecciones parciales de Galway-West?

Noel Thomas 69%

Mike Cubbard 29.5%

Mark Lohan 16.2%

Sheila Garrity 1.1%

Polymarket

$29,326 Vol.

Noel Thomas 69%

Mike Cubbard 29.5%

Mark Lohan 16.2%

Sheila Garrity 1.1%

Polymarket

$29,326 Vol.

Sheila Garrity

$19,298 Vol.

14%

Seán Kyne

$893 Vol.

<1%

Niall Murphy

$488 Vol.

<1%

Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich

$652 Vol.

<1%

Orla Nugent

$656 Vol.

<1%

Helen Ogbu

$1,107 Vol.

15%

Denman Rooke

$545 Vol.

<1%

Noel Thomas

$2,262 Vol.

69%

Thomas Welby

$902 Vol.

<1%

Mike Cubbard

$823 Vol.

16%

Mark Lohan

$1,701 Vol.

10%

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Trader consensus heavily favors Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas at 68.5% implied probability to win the Galway West Dáil by-election on May 22, driven by his prominent role in recent fuel protests blockading Galway port over soaring energy costs and shortages in Connemara, amplifying localist appeals on cost of living and prior opposition to asylum centers like Rosscahill. His near-miss for a seat in the 2024 general election, combined with rural Independent momentum, positions him to attract transfers from like-minded voters disillusioned with government parties. Mike Cubbard's mayoral profile bolsters his independent bid at 16.3% in urban Galway, while Sheila Garrity's continuity claim to Catherine Connolly's left-leaning independent seat holds at 15.4%, amid fragmented left coordination under Tonn na Clé and no formal polls.

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Volumen
$29,326
Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2027
Mercado abierto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Trader consensus heavily favors Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas at 68.5% implied probability to win the Galway West Dáil by-election on May 22, driven by his prominent role in recent fuel protests blockading Galway port over soaring energy costs and shortages in Connemara, amplifying localist appeals on cost of living and prior opposition to asylum centers like Rosscahill. His near-miss for a seat in the 2024 general election, combined with rural Independent momentum, positions him to attract transfers from like-minded voters disillusioned with government parties. Mike Cubbard's mayoral profile bolsters his independent bid at 16.3% in urban Galway, while Sheila Garrity's continuity claim to Catherine Connolly's left-leaning independent seat holds at 15.4%, amid fragmented left coordination under Tonn na Clé and no formal polls.

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Volumen
$29,326
Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2027
Mercado abierto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Ganador de las elecciones parciales de Galway-West?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 11 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Noel Thomas" con 69%, seguido de "Mike Cubbard" con 16%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 69¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 69% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Ganador de las elecciones parciales de Galway-West?" ha generado $29.3K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Feb 26, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Ganador de las elecciones parciales de Galway-West?", explora los 11 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Ganador de las elecciones parciales de Galway-West?" es "Noel Thomas" con 69%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 69% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Mike Cubbard" con 16%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Ganador de las elecciones parciales de Galway-West?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.