Recent rebel attacks by FARC-EMC dissidents, including a deadly highway bombing killing 14 and over two dozen incidents with explosives and drones in Colombia's southwest, have escalated security fears just weeks before the May 31 first-round presidential vote, bolstering right-wing candidates Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia who emphasize military crackdowns and anti-crime measures. Trader consensus reflects a razor-thin race with unidentified moderate Candidate M at 49.5% implied probability edging leftist frontrunner Iván Cepeda Castro (40.5%), amid polls showing Cepeda leading first-round voting around 38-44% but trailing right-wingers in simulated runoffs; the right's split vote keeps the contest tight, with potential consolidation or debate performances ahead of the June 21 runoff possibly creating separation in this fragmented field.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCoverage of pre-election violence and De la Espriella's right-wing populist image compared to Nayib Bukele raises his profile as a tough alternative to the left
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 28%11%
Coverage of pre-election violence and De la Espriella's right-wing populist image compared to Nayib Bukele raises his profile as a tough alternative to the left
Public disagreement emerges between Valencia and Oviedo over the proposal to appoint former President Álvaro Uribe as Minister of Defense, exposing internal tensions within the
Paloma Valencia jumps to 36%5%
Public disagreement emerges between Valencia and Oviedo over the proposal to appoint former President Álvaro Uribe as Minister of Defense, exposing internal tensions within the ticket and causing some voter uncertainty
Polls show Valencia at 19.8% support, trailing Iván Cepeda but solidifying her position as the main right-wing challenger amid a split right-wing vote
Paloma Valencia rises to 34%1%
Polls show Valencia at 19.8% support, trailing Iván Cepeda but solidifying her position as the main right-wing challenger amid a split right-wing vote
Colombian President Gustavo Petro reveals CIA has concrete intelligence on a possible assassination plot against Iván Cepeda, highlighting serious security threats to his campaign
Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 39%4%
Colombian President Gustavo Petro reveals CIA has concrete intelligence on a possible assassination plot against Iván Cepeda, highlighting serious security threats to his campaign
Iván Cepeda responds to assassination threat alert, calling for neutralization of plans and increased protection, underscoring the dangerous political climate
Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 39%4%
Iván Cepeda responds to assassination threat alert, calling for neutralization of plans and increased protection, underscoring the dangerous political climate
Reports highlight De la Espriella's promise to scrap peace agreements and return to hardline security policies, appealing to conservative voters amid rising violence
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 28%9%
Reports highlight De la Espriella's promise to scrap peace agreements and return to hardline security policies, appealing to conservative voters amid rising violence
Valencia’s campaign peaks at 47% in polls following consolidation of center-right support and strategic alliances, reflecting growing competitiveness
Paloma Valencia jumps to 47%8%
Valencia’s campaign peaks at 47% in polls following consolidation of center-right support and strategic alliances, reflecting growing competitiveness
Iván Cepeda publicly urges media to stop speculation about his health, affirming his fitness for presidency amid campaign rumors
Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 38%6%
Iván Cepeda publicly urges media to stop speculation about his health, affirming his fitness for presidency amid campaign rumors
Paloma Valencia announces economist Juan Daniel Oviedo, former head of Colombia’s national statistics agency, as her vice-presidential running mate, aiming to broaden appeal
Paloma Valencia rises to 42%3%
Paloma Valencia announces economist Juan Daniel Oviedo, former head of Colombia’s national statistics agency, as her vice-presidential running mate, aiming to broaden appeal beyond traditional conservative voters
Iván Cepeda reveals Senator Aída Quilcué as his vice-presidential running mate, emphasizing Indigenous representation and social struggle, strengthening his coalition’s appeal
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 44%6%
Iván Cepeda reveals Senator Aída Quilcué as his vice-presidential running mate, emphasizing Indigenous representation and social struggle, strengthening his coalition’s appeal
Valencia’s primary win reported widely, marking the return of Uribismo to prominence and positioning her as a leading contender against leftist Iván Cepeda
Paloma Valencia rises to 39%2%
Valencia’s primary win reported widely, marking the return of Uribismo to prominence and positioning her as a leading contender against leftist Iván Cepeda
Paloma Valencia wins the conservative “La Gran Consulta” primary with over 3 million votes, decisively defeating eight rivals and becoming the official center-right candidate;
Paloma Valencia surges to 37%27%
this victory reshapes the race and boosts her profile significantly
Vicky Dávila loses the right-wing “Gran Consulta” primary, ending her presidential campaign and leading to her market
Vicky Dávila (IND) dips to 0%1%
Vicky Dávila loses the right-wing “Gran Consulta” primary, ending her presidential campaign and leading to her market
Claudia López wins the centrist "Consulta de las Soluciones" primary against a minor opponent but fails to gain significant momentum compared to frontrunners, keeping her market
Claudia López (IND) dips to 0%1%
Claudia López wins the centrist "Consulta de las Soluciones" primary against a minor opponent but fails to gain significant momentum compared to frontrunners, keeping her market
Valencia’s support hits a low of 4% following a period of limited visibility and competition from other right-wing candidates
Paloma Valencia drops to 4%5%
Valencia’s support hits a low of 4% following a period of limited visibility and competition from other right-wing candidates
Colombia’s National Civil Registry invalidates nearly half of Claudia López’s submitted signatures due to irregularities, reducing her official support margin and negatively
Claudia López (IND) dips to 1%2%
Colombia’s National Civil Registry invalidates nearly half of Claudia López’s submitted signatures due to irregularities, reducing her official support margin and negatively impacting market confidence
Legislative primary results show Paloma Valencia's strong performance, creating competition on the right and pressuring De la Espriella's standing
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 28%11%
Legislative primary results show Paloma Valencia's strong performance, creating competition on the right and pressuring De la Espriella's standing
Colombia’s National Civil Registry invalidates over 500,000 of Vicky Dávila’s citizen endorsement signatures, reducing her official support and casting doubt on her candidacy
Vicky Dávila (IND) dips to 4%4%
Colombia’s National Civil Registry invalidates over 500,000 of Vicky Dávila’s citizen endorsement signatures, reducing her official support and casting doubt on her candidacy viability
Iván Cepeda announces criminal complaint against ex-President Andrés Pastrana over alleged misuse of military assets linked to Jeffrey Epstein associate Ghislaine Maxwell, raising
Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 44%4%
Iván Cepeda announces criminal complaint against ex-President Andrés Pastrana over alleged misuse of military assets linked to Jeffrey Epstein associate Ghislaine Maxwell, raising his profile on corruption and accountability
Colombia’s National Electoral Council excludes Iván Cepeda from the left-wing interparty primary, forcing him to run directly in the first round, a major campaign disruption
Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 30%11%
Colombia’s National Electoral Council excludes Iván Cepeda from the left-wing interparty primary, forcing him to run directly in the first round, a major campaign disruption
Legal challenges resurface with accusations of embezzlement related to a loan contract during his governorship, creating uncertainty about his candidacy’s viability and further
Sergio Fajardo (DC) dips to 3%3%
Legal challenges resurface with accusations of embezzlement related to a loan contract during his governorship, creating uncertainty about his candidacy’s viability and further depressing market
Polls show Fajardo’s support falling to around 6%, reflecting the impact of his solo run decision and the rise of other candidates, signaling weakening market confidence
Sergio Fajardo (DC) drops to 6%7%
Polls show Fajardo’s support falling to around 6%, reflecting the impact of his solo run decision and the rise of other candidates, signaling weakening market confidence
Polls show a peak of 14% support for Valencia amid early campaign activity, but momentum stalls shortly after
Paloma Valencia rises to 14%4%
Polls show a peak of 14% support for Valencia amid early campaign activity, but momentum stalls shortly after
Polymarket and polls show a close race between Iván Cepeda and Abelardo de la Espriella, with De la Espriella consolidating right-wing support as a challenger to the left
Abelardo de la Espriella dips to 38%2%
Polymarket and polls show a close race between Iván Cepeda and Abelardo de la Espriella, with De la Espriella consolidating right-wing support as a challenger to the left
Early polling shows Paloma Valencia at 22% support in the presidential race, reflecting initial recognition as a center-right contender
Early polling shows Paloma Valencia at 22% support in the presidential race, reflecting initial recognition as a center-right contender
Formation of the “Gran Consulta por Colombia” right-wing coalition including Vicky Dávila, aiming to unify the right but also exposing internal divisions and competition among
Vicky Dávila (IND) drops to 8%6%
Formation of the “Gran Consulta por Colombia” right-wing coalition including Vicky Dávila, aiming to unify the right but also exposing internal divisions and competition among candidates
Fajardo announces he will run solo in the first round of the presidential election, rejecting participation in interparty primaries to avoid polarization and preserve the center,
Sergio Fajardo (DC) drops to 6%8%
Fajardo announces he will run solo in the first round of the presidential election, rejecting participation in interparty primaries to avoid polarization and preserve the center, clarifying his electoral strategy but complicating coalition prospects
De la Espriella submits signatures to register his presidential candidacy, confirming his independent run and refusal to participate in right-wing primaries
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 40%2%
De la Espriella submits signatures to register his presidential candidacy, confirming his independent run and refusal to participate in right-wing primaries
Iván Cepeda’s legal team files an extraordinary appeal after the acquittal of Álvaro Uribe by the Superior Tribunal, maintaining pressure in a high-profile judicial battle
Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 31%17%
Iván Cepeda’s legal team files an extraordinary appeal after the acquittal of Álvaro Uribe by the Superior Tribunal, maintaining pressure in a high-profile judicial battle
Claudia López surpasses 1.5 million signatures to qualify as an independent candidate, signaling strong grassroots support but mixed public assessments of her mayoral tenure,
Claudia López (IND) rises to 3%1%
Claudia López surpasses 1.5 million signatures to qualify as an independent candidate, signaling strong grassroots support but mixed public assessments of her mayoral tenure, stabilizing
Release of Colombia’s first public poll after a temporary ban shows Fajardo leading the centrist bloc with 24%, but overall voter indecision remains high, causing minor
Sergio Fajardo (DC) rises to 16%3%
Release of Colombia’s first public poll after a temporary ban shows Fajardo leading the centrist bloc with 24%, but overall voter indecision remains high, causing minor
Abelardo de la Espriella holds "Grand National Convention of Defenders of the Homeland" rally in Bogotá with 15,000 supporters, boosting his profile as a tough-on-crime candidate
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 47%6%
Abelardo de la Espriella holds "Grand National Convention of Defenders of the Homeland" rally in Bogotá with 15,000 supporters, boosting his profile as a tough-on-crime candidate
Iván Cepeda welcomes the ICC’s closure of the preliminary examination into Colombia, framing it as recognition of national transitional justice efforts, reinforcing his human
Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 31%17%
Iván Cepeda welcomes the ICC’s closure of the preliminary examination into Colombia, framing it as recognition of national transitional justice efforts, reinforcing his human rights credentials
Polls show conservative candidate Vicky Dávila leading, with Abelardo de la Espriella gaining attention but polling lower, reflecting early volatility in right-wing support
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 38%12%
Polls show conservative candidate Vicky Dávila leading, with Abelardo de la Espriella gaining attention but polling lower, reflecting early volatility in right-wing support
Vicky Dávila publicly accuses President Petro of undermining electoral trust amid growing concerns over election transparency and violence, highlighting political polarization but
Vicky Dávila (IND) drops to 18%10%
Vicky Dávila publicly accuses President Petro of undermining electoral trust amid growing concerns over election transparency and violence, highlighting political polarization but not boosting her standing significantly
Abelardo de la Espriella announces return to Colombia to lead "Defenders of the Homeland" movement, positioning himself as a right-wing outsider challenging traditional politics
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 28%22%
Abelardo de la Espriella announces return to Colombia to lead "Defenders of the Homeland" movement, positioning himself as a right-wing outsider challenging traditional politics
Early polling and signature collection difficulties emerge, with reports of logistical challenges and scrutiny over citizen endorsements, causing a sharp drop in market
Claudia López (IND) plunges to 12%38%
Early polling and signature collection difficulties emerge, with reports of logistical challenges and scrutiny over citizen endorsements, causing a sharp drop in market
Polls show Sergio Fajardo’s support dropping sharply to 18% amid rising competition and fragmented voter intentions, reflecting early doubts about his electoral strength
Sergio Fajardo (DC) plunges to 18%32%
Polls show Sergio Fajardo’s support dropping sharply to 18% amid rising competition and fragmented voter intentions, reflecting early doubts about his electoral strength
Iván Cepeda denounces U.S. lobbying efforts to influence Colombian judiciary in favor of former President Álvaro Uribe, highlighting international pressure and political tensions
Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 39%11%
Iván Cepeda denounces U.S. lobbying efforts to influence Colombian judiciary in favor of former President Álvaro Uribe, highlighting international pressure and political tensions around Uribe’s legal case
Claudia López officially launches her presidential candidacy with the "Imparables" movement, emphasizing anti-corruption and grassroots support, initially boosting market optimism
Claudia López officially launches her presidential candidacy with the "Imparables" movement, emphasizing anti-corruption and grassroots support, initially boosting market optimism
Sergio Fajardo announces his presidential candidacy for the 2026 elections, emphasizing the need to address insecurity, corruption, and unite the political center, left, and right.
This announcement initially set his market
Poll places Miguel Uribe Turbay ahead of Vicky Dávila, showing her support slipping to 11.5% from earlier leads, signaling rising competition within the right-wing bloc
Vicky Dávila (IND) plunges to 28%22%
Poll places Miguel Uribe Turbay ahead of Vicky Dávila, showing her support slipping to 11.5% from earlier leads, signaling rising competition within the right-wing bloc
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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