**Canada's federal government has sharply reduced immigration targets through its 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, capping permanent resident admissions at 380,000 annually while tightening non-permanent resident (NPR) inflows such as study and work permits.** This policy shift aims to lower the NPR share of the population from a 2024 peak above 7% toward 5% by late 2027, producing net outflows that have already driven measurable declines. Official data from Statistics Canada show Canada's population fell 0.2% year-over-year as of January 1, 2026—the first annual decline on record—with continued quarterly drops tied to NPR reductions exceeding 171,000 in one recent period. The Parliamentary Budget Officer projects flat overall growth for 2026, reflecting these outflows offsetting modest permanent inflows and low natural increase from aging demographics and sub-replacement fertility. These verified developments, combined with ongoing caps on temporary residents, underpin the trader consensus favoring a net population decrease for the calendar year. Resolution hinges on final Statistics Canada year-end estimates.