Civil Contract's commanding 94.5% implied probability as the winner of Armenia's June 7 parliamentary election stems from its persistent lead in recent polls—such as EVN Report's April survey showing 33.6% support amid 37% non-committed voters leaning incumbent—and projected 50%+ vote shares in aggregates like PolitPro, bolstered by incumbency under Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. Fragmented opposition, including Strong Armenia (11-14%), Armenia Alliance (4-8%), and Prosperous Armenia (3-7%), struggles with thresholds under proportional representation, exacerbated by recent arrests of Strong Armenia figures and failed unity efforts. Traders' skin-in-the-game consensus anticipates Civil Contract securing the most seats, though a late opposition coalition, government scandal, or decisive undecided shift could challenge this.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoContrato Civil 95%
Alianza Armenia 3.5%
Congreso Nacional Armenio <1%
Prosperará Armenia <1%
$113,494 Vol.
$113,494 Vol.
7 jun 2026
Contrato Civil
95%
Alianza Armenia
4%
Congreso Nacional Armenio
<1%
Prosperará Armenia
<1%
Partido Hanrapetutyun
<1%
Heritage
<1%
Orinats Yerkir
<1%
Armenia Brillante
<1%
Alianza Tengo Honor
<1%
Contrato Civil 95%
Alianza Armenia 3.5%
Congreso Nacional Armenio <1%
Prosperará Armenia <1%
$113,494 Vol.
$113,494 Vol.
7 jun 2026
Contrato Civil
$44,956 Vol.
95%
Alianza Armenia
$50,991 Vol.
4%
Congreso Nacional Armenio
$2,663 Vol.
<1%
Prosperará Armenia
$2,422 Vol.
<1%
Partido Hanrapetutyun
$2,196 Vol.
<1%
Heritage
$2,576 Vol.
<1%
Orinats Yerkir
$2,669 Vol.
<1%
Armenia Brillante
$2,960 Vol.
<1%
Alianza Tengo Honor
$2,061 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).Civil Contract's commanding 94.5% implied probability as the winner of Armenia's June 7 parliamentary election stems from its persistent lead in recent polls—such as EVN Report's April survey showing 33.6% support amid 37% non-committed voters leaning incumbent—and projected 50%+ vote shares in aggregates like PolitPro, bolstered by incumbency under Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. Fragmented opposition, including Strong Armenia (11-14%), Armenia Alliance (4-8%), and Prosperous Armenia (3-7%), struggles with thresholds under proportional representation, exacerbated by recent arrests of Strong Armenia figures and failed unity efforts. Traders' skin-in-the-game consensus anticipates Civil Contract securing the most seats, though a late opposition coalition, government scandal, or decisive undecided shift could challenge this.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).
Mercado abierto: Dec 15, 2025, 7:08 PM ET
Volumen
$113,494Fecha de finalización
7 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 15, 2025, 7:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).Civil Contract's commanding 94.5% implied probability as the winner of Armenia's June 7 parliamentary election stems from its persistent lead in recent polls—such as EVN Report's April survey showing 33.6% support amid 37% non-committed voters leaning incumbent—and projected 50%+ vote shares in aggregates like PolitPro, bolstered by incumbency under Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. Fragmented opposition, including Strong Armenia (11-14%), Armenia Alliance (4-8%), and Prosperous Armenia (3-7%), struggles with thresholds under proportional representation, exacerbated by recent arrests of Strong Armenia figures and failed unity efforts. Traders' skin-in-the-game consensus anticipates Civil Contract securing the most seats, though a late opposition coalition, government scandal, or decisive undecided shift could challenge this.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).
Volumen
$113,494Fecha de finalización
7 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 15, 2025, 7:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Civil Contract's commanding 94.5% implied probability as the winner of Armenia's June 7 parliamentary election stems from its persistent lead in recent polls—such as EVN Report's April survey showing 33.6% support amid 37% non-committed voters leaning incumbent—and projected 50%+ vote shares in aggregates like PolitPro, bolstered by incumbency under Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. Fragmented opposition, including Strong Armenia (11-14%), Armenia Alliance (4-8%), and Prosperous Armenia (3-7%), struggles with thresholds under proportional representation, exacerbated by recent arrests of Strong Armenia figures and failed unity efforts. Traders' skin-in-the-game consensus anticipates Civil Contract securing the most seats, though a late opposition coalition, government scandal, or decisive undecided shift could challenge this.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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