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U.S. X Iran predictions & odds

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US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

32%

June 30

$66M Vol.

$2M today

$1M Liq.

1,460

Ends in 30 days

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?

54%

June 30

$42M Vol.

$2M today

$272K Liq.

863

Ends in 2 months

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

<1%

$35M Vol.

$1M today

$552K Liq.

3

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

3%

$12M Vol.

$749K today

$569K Liq.

1

Ends in 30 days

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

61%

June 30

$29M Vol.

$719K today

$289K Liq.

5

Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?

Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?

40%

May 31

$9M Vol.

$344K today

$328K Liq.

267

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?

6%

$3M Vol.

$338K today

$389K Liq.

Ends in 14 days

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

19%

$4M Vol.

$273K today

$307K Liq.

Ends in 30 days

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

28%

December 31

$9M Vol.

$206K today

$196K Liq.

99

Ends in 8 months

Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?

Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?

52%

Pakistan

$3M Vol.

$163K today

$251K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

49%

$1M Vol.

$107K today

$225K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Iran military action against ___ by April 30?

Iran military action against ___ by April 30?

3%

Bahrain

$5M Vol.

$68.8K today

$86.5K Liq.

1

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

41%

December 31

$5M Vol.

$231K Liq.

102

Ends in 8 months

Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting on...?

Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting on...?

86%

No Meeting before May 11

$1M Vol.

$224K Liq.

22

Ends in 9 days

Gulf State military action against Iran by...?

Gulf State military action against Iran by...?

<1%

April 30

$1M Vol.

$24.0K Liq.

131

Will another country conduct military action against Iran by...?

Will another country conduct military action against Iran by...?

<1%

April 30

$2M Vol.

$37.1K Liq.

299

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?

13%

$44.0K Vol.

$52.0K Liq.

Ends in 30 days

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?

16%

$40.2K Vol.

$71.8K Liq.

Ends in 30 days

US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

12%

$35.5K Vol.

$29.4K Liq.

Ends in 30 days

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?

<1%

80+

$1M Vol.

$37.2K Liq.

Frequently Asked Questions

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Polymarket currently hosts 20 active markets for U.S. X Iran that lets you track or trade on predictions like “US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $229.8M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 32% chance to June 30. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on U.S. X Iran predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.