Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a scant 1% implied probability for Gulf State military action against Iran by April 30, reflecting strategic restraint amid the US-Iran war's third month, where Tehran has launched nearly 2,000 drone and missile strikes on UAE and Saudi infrastructure without provoking direct retaliation. Gulf leaders, convening at a Saudi-hosted GCC summit, issued warnings but urged escalated US strikes via CENTCOM plans, prioritizing Hormuz reopening over escalation; UAE's OPEC exit effective May 1 enables unconstrained 5 million bpd output via the Iran-proof Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, capping Brent crude's war-driven surge to $112/bbl. Resolution hinges on unconfirmed EOD Arabia time reports, with oil volatility and VIX spikes underscoring embedded geopolitical risk premiums.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGulf State military action against Iran by...?
Gulf State military action against Iran by...?
$1,255,709 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
April 30
<1%
$1,255,709 Vol.
April 30
$557,957 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a scant 1% implied probability for Gulf State military action against Iran by April 30, reflecting strategic restraint amid the US-Iran war's third month, where Tehran has launched nearly 2,000 drone and missile strikes on UAE and Saudi infrastructure without provoking direct retaliation. Gulf leaders, convening at a Saudi-hosted GCC summit, issued warnings but urged escalated US strikes via CENTCOM plans, prioritizing Hormuz reopening over escalation; UAE's OPEC exit effective May 1 enables unconstrained 5 million bpd output via the Iran-proof Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, capping Brent crude's war-driven surge to $112/bbl. Resolution hinges on unconfirmed EOD Arabia time reports, with oil volatility and VIX spikes underscoring embedded geopolitical risk premiums.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Market Opened: Mar 27, 2026, 1:43 PM ET
Volume
$1,255,709End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 1:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a scant 1% implied probability for Gulf State military action against Iran by April 30, reflecting strategic restraint amid the US-Iran war's third month, where Tehran has launched nearly 2,000 drone and missile strikes on UAE and Saudi infrastructure without provoking direct retaliation. Gulf leaders, convening at a Saudi-hosted GCC summit, issued warnings but urged escalated US strikes via CENTCOM plans, prioritizing Hormuz reopening over escalation; UAE's OPEC exit effective May 1 enables unconstrained 5 million bpd output via the Iran-proof Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, capping Brent crude's war-driven surge to $112/bbl. Resolution hinges on unconfirmed EOD Arabia time reports, with oil volatility and VIX spikes underscoring embedded geopolitical risk premiums.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$1,255,709End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 1:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a scant 1% implied probability for Gulf State military action against Iran by April 30, reflecting strategic restraint amid the US-Iran war's third month, where Tehran has launched nearly 2,000 drone and missile strikes on UAE and Saudi infrastructure without provoking direct retaliation. Gulf leaders, convening at a Saudi-hosted GCC summit, issued warnings but urged escalated US strikes via CENTCOM plans, prioritizing Hormuz reopening over escalation; UAE's OPEC exit effective May 1 enables unconstrained 5 million bpd output via the Iran-proof Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, capping Brent crude's war-driven surge to $112/bbl. Resolution hinges on unconfirmed EOD Arabia time reports, with oil volatility and VIX spikes underscoring embedded geopolitical risk premiums.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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