A fragile US-Iran ceasefire effective since April 8, alongside a Hezbollah-Israel truce from April 16, has held amid the ongoing 2026 war sparked by US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites starting February 28, limiting further direct Iranian missile or drone strikes on foreign territories. Earlier April exchanges included Iranian barrages targeting Israel—including Ben Gurion Airport—and US bases in Bahrain, Qatar, and Kuwait, but no qualifying actions under strict criteria (impacts from Iranian-launched aerial weapons on soil or embassies, excluding proxies or intercepts) reported in the past week despite Iran attacking commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz on April 22 and stalled nuclear talks in Pakistan on April 25. On April 30, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz signaled readiness for renewed strikes on Iran, while US House Speaker Mike Johnson stated no formal war exists, keeping focus on potential late-day escalation before the market deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran military action against ___ by April 30?
Iran military action against ___ by April 30?
$5,110,145 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Bahrain
3%
Qatar
1%
Oman
1%
Afghanistan
1%
Jordan
1%
Pakistan
1%
Cyprus
<1%
Azerbaijan
<1%
UK
<1%
Yemen
<1%
Lebanon
<1%
Turkey
<1%
Germany
<1%
Armenia
<1%
Syria
<1%
Spain
<1%
France
<1%
Poland
<1%
Hungary
<1%
Ukraine
<1%
India
<1%
Italy
<1%
Georgia
<1%
$5,110,145 Vol.
Bahrain
$542,731 Vol.
3%
Qatar
$221,698 Vol.
1%
Oman
$100,683 Vol.
1%
Afghanistan
$13,251 Vol.
1%
Jordan
$64,821 Vol.
1%
Pakistan
$48,305 Vol.
1%
Cyprus
$27,794 Vol.
<1%
Azerbaijan
$105,603 Vol.
<1%
UK
$30,727 Vol.
<1%
Yemen
$20,687 Vol.
<1%
Lebanon
$65,185 Vol.
<1%
Turkey
$47,106 Vol.
<1%
Germany
$21,610 Vol.
<1%
Armenia
$12,296 Vol.
<1%
Syria
$26,381 Vol.
<1%
Spain
$9,953 Vol.
<1%
France
$51,156 Vol.
<1%
Poland
$38,898 Vol.
<1%
Hungary
$26,863 Vol.
<1%
Ukraine
$16,345 Vol.
<1%
India
$31,184 Vol.
<1%
Italy
$4,382 Vol.
<1%
Georgia
$18,123 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.A fragile US-Iran ceasefire effective since April 8, alongside a Hezbollah-Israel truce from April 16, has held amid the ongoing 2026 war sparked by US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites starting February 28, limiting further direct Iranian missile or drone strikes on foreign territories. Earlier April exchanges included Iranian barrages targeting Israel—including Ben Gurion Airport—and US bases in Bahrain, Qatar, and Kuwait, but no qualifying actions under strict criteria (impacts from Iranian-launched aerial weapons on soil or embassies, excluding proxies or intercepts) reported in the past week despite Iran attacking commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz on April 22 and stalled nuclear talks in Pakistan on April 25. On April 30, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz signaled readiness for renewed strikes on Iran, while US House Speaker Mike Johnson stated no formal war exists, keeping focus on potential late-day escalation before the market deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ET
Volume
$5,110,145End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.A fragile US-Iran ceasefire effective since April 8, alongside a Hezbollah-Israel truce from April 16, has held amid the ongoing 2026 war sparked by US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites starting February 28, limiting further direct Iranian missile or drone strikes on foreign territories. Earlier April exchanges included Iranian barrages targeting Israel—including Ben Gurion Airport—and US bases in Bahrain, Qatar, and Kuwait, but no qualifying actions under strict criteria (impacts from Iranian-launched aerial weapons on soil or embassies, excluding proxies or intercepts) reported in the past week despite Iran attacking commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz on April 22 and stalled nuclear talks in Pakistan on April 25. On April 30, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz signaled readiness for renewed strikes on Iran, while US House Speaker Mike Johnson stated no formal war exists, keeping focus on potential late-day escalation before the market deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$5,110,145End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A fragile US-Iran ceasefire effective since April 8, alongside a Hezbollah-Israel truce from April 16, has held amid the ongoing 2026 war sparked by US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites starting February 28, limiting further direct Iranian missile or drone strikes on foreign territories. Earlier April exchanges included Iranian barrages targeting Israel—including Ben Gurion Airport—and US bases in Bahrain, Qatar, and Kuwait, but no qualifying actions under strict criteria (impacts from Iranian-launched aerial weapons on soil or embassies, excluding proxies or intercepts) reported in the past week despite Iran attacking commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz on April 22 and stalled nuclear talks in Pakistan on April 25. On April 30, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz signaled readiness for renewed strikes on Iran, while US House Speaker Mike Johnson stated no formal war exists, keeping focus on potential late-day escalation before the market deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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