Trader consensus heavily favors no US-Iran diplomatic meeting before May 11 at 86.5%, reflecting stalled direct talks following the collapse of marathon negotiations in Islamabad on April 11-12, where sticking points over nuclear enrichment, Strait of Hormuz access, and ceasefire terms in Lebanon prevented progress. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi's April 27-28 visit to Russia, where he blamed excessive US demands for the failure, underscored Tehran's reluctance for immediate face-to-face engagement, with no dates announced for a second round despite earlier mediator efforts. Ongoing US sanctions on Iranian funding networks and naval posturing in the Strait further dim near-term prospects, though late-breaking diplomatic overtures or de-escalation signals could shift odds before the May 10 deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNext US x Iran diplomatic meeting on...?
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting on...?
No Meeting before May 11 87%
May 10 3.3%
May 5 2.4%
May 9 2.0%
$1,362,810 Vol.
$1,362,810 Vol.
May 10, 2026
April 30
<1%
May 1
<1%
May 2
1%
May 3
1%
May 4
1%
May 5
2%
May 6
1%
May 7
1%
May 8
1%
May 9
2%
May 10
3%
No Meeting before May 11
87%
No Meeting before May 11 87%
May 10 3.3%
May 5 2.4%
May 9 2.0%
$1,362,810 Vol.
$1,362,810 Vol.
May 10, 2026
April 30
$71,626 Vol.
<1%
May 1
$33,005 Vol.
<1%
May 2
$30,125 Vol.
1%
May 3
$25,079 Vol.
1%
May 4
$32,221 Vol.
1%
May 5
$30,686 Vol.
2%
May 6
$28,761 Vol.
1%
May 7
$28,099 Vol.
1%
May 8
$24,135 Vol.
1%
May 9
$28,545 Vol.
2%
May 10
$45,089 Vol.
3%
No Meeting before May 11
$426,988 Vol.
87%
This market will resolve according to the listed date (Pakistan Standard Time) on which the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran occurs.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If no qualifying meeting occurs by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM Pakistan Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No Meeting before May 11”.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors no US-Iran diplomatic meeting before May 11 at 86.5%, reflecting stalled direct talks following the collapse of marathon negotiations in Islamabad on April 11-12, where sticking points over nuclear enrichment, Strait of Hormuz access, and ceasefire terms in Lebanon prevented progress. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi's April 27-28 visit to Russia, where he blamed excessive US demands for the failure, underscored Tehran's reluctance for immediate face-to-face engagement, with no dates announced for a second round despite earlier mediator efforts. Ongoing US sanctions on Iranian funding networks and naval posturing in the Strait further dim near-term prospects, though late-breaking diplomatic overtures or de-escalation signals could shift odds before the May 10 deadline.
This market will resolve according to the listed date (Pakistan Standard Time) on which the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran occurs.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If no qualifying meeting occurs by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM Pakistan Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No Meeting before May 11”.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If no qualifying meeting occurs by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM Pakistan Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No Meeting before May 11”.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Apr 21, 2026, 7:19 PM ET
Volume
$1,362,810End Date
May 10, 2026Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 7:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the listed date (Pakistan Standard Time) on which the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran occurs.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If no qualifying meeting occurs by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM Pakistan Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No Meeting before May 11”.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors no US-Iran diplomatic meeting before May 11 at 86.5%, reflecting stalled direct talks following the collapse of marathon negotiations in Islamabad on April 11-12, where sticking points over nuclear enrichment, Strait of Hormuz access, and ceasefire terms in Lebanon prevented progress. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi's April 27-28 visit to Russia, where he blamed excessive US demands for the failure, underscored Tehran's reluctance for immediate face-to-face engagement, with no dates announced for a second round despite earlier mediator efforts. Ongoing US sanctions on Iranian funding networks and naval posturing in the Strait further dim near-term prospects, though late-breaking diplomatic overtures or de-escalation signals could shift odds before the May 10 deadline.
This market will resolve according to the listed date (Pakistan Standard Time) on which the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran occurs.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If no qualifying meeting occurs by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM Pakistan Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No Meeting before May 11”.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If no qualifying meeting occurs by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM Pakistan Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No Meeting before May 11”.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,362,810End Date
May 10, 2026Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 7:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors no US-Iran diplomatic meeting before May 11 at 86.5%, reflecting stalled direct talks following the collapse of marathon negotiations in Islamabad on April 11-12, where sticking points over nuclear enrichment, Strait of Hormuz access, and ceasefire terms in Lebanon prevented progress. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi's April 27-28 visit to Russia, where he blamed excessive US demands for the failure, underscored Tehran's reluctance for immediate face-to-face engagement, with no dates announced for a second round despite earlier mediator efforts. Ongoing US sanctions on Iranian funding networks and naval posturing in the Strait further dim near-term prospects, though late-breaking diplomatic overtures or de-escalation signals could shift odds before the May 10 deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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