Pete Hegseth remains actively engaged as Secretary of Defense, now styled Secretary of War, through mid-June 2026, overseeing military operations including Iran-related strikes, budget testimony before Congress, promotion decisions, and public appearances such as a June 14 national television interview. With only 16 days until the June 30 resolution date, traders see no Senate actions, White House statements, or resignation signals that would trigger an abrupt exit. Strong alignment with the administration and historical patterns of cabinet continuity in unified government reinforce the 98.7% implied probability that he serves through the deadline. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include a sudden health event, major undisclosed scandal, or sharp policy rupture prompting presidential removal, though none appear imminent based on current developments.