Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a Trump visit to China at over 75% likelihood by May 31, with May 13 leading at 41% implied probability amid speculation on precise arrival logistics for the rescheduled summit with Xi Jinping. The White House announced on March 25 that President Trump would travel to Beijing on May 14-15, postponed from late March due to the ongoing U.S. conflict with Iran, marking his first such trip in eight years to discuss trade stability, Strait of Hormuz reopening, and broader bilateral ties. Recent developments bolstering odds include an April 30 "candid" call between U.S. Trade Representative Greer and China's He Lifeng, plus Japan's request for a mid-May stopover, though persistent Middle East tensions sustain 23% odds on no visit by May 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Trump visit China on...?
Will Trump visit China on...?
May 13 41%
May 14 26%
No visit by May 31 23%
May 15 3.5%
$187,694 Vol.
$187,694 Vol.
On or prior to May 1
<1%
May 2
<1%
May 3
<1%
May 4
<1%
May 5
<1%
May 6
<1%
May 7
<1%
May 8
<1%
May 9
<1%
May 10
<1%
May 11
<1%
May 12
1%
May 13
41%
May 14
26%
May 15
3%
May 16
2%
May 17
1%
May 18
1%
May 19
1%
May 20
1%
May 21
1%
May 22
1%
May 23
<1%
May 24
1%
May 25
2%
May 26
1%
May 27
1%
May 28
1%
May 29
1%
May 30
1%
May 31
1%
No visit by May 31
23%
May 13 41%
May 14 26%
No visit by May 31 23%
May 15 3.5%
$187,694 Vol.
$187,694 Vol.
On or prior to May 1
<1%
May 2
<1%
May 3
<1%
May 4
<1%
May 5
<1%
May 6
<1%
May 7
<1%
May 8
<1%
May 9
<1%
May 10
<1%
May 11
<1%
May 12
1%
May 13
41%
May 14
26%
May 15
3%
May 16
2%
May 17
1%
May 18
1%
May 19
1%
May 20
1%
May 21
1%
May 22
1%
May 23
<1%
May 24
1%
May 25
2%
May 26
1%
May 27
1%
May 28
1%
May 29
1%
May 30
1%
May 31
1%
No visit by May 31
23%
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 3:29 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a Trump visit to China at over 75% likelihood by May 31, with May 13 leading at 41% implied probability amid speculation on precise arrival logistics for the rescheduled summit with Xi Jinping. The White House announced on March 25 that President Trump would travel to Beijing on May 14-15, postponed from late March due to the ongoing U.S. conflict with Iran, marking his first such trip in eight years to discuss trade stability, Strait of Hormuz reopening, and broader bilateral ties. Recent developments bolstering odds include an April 30 "candid" call between U.S. Trade Representative Greer and China's He Lifeng, plus Japan's request for a mid-May stopover, though persistent Middle East tensions sustain 23% odds on no visit by May 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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