This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.A fragile US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah took effect April 17, 2026, amid demands for the group's full disarmament as a condition for lasting de-escalation, following direct Lebanese-Israeli talks in Washington on April 14-15. Hezbollah leaders, including a top official in a rare April 21 interview and another on April 27, have categorically rejected disarmament, insisting on Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, prisoner releases, and reconstruction aid first. Ongoing Israeli strikes responding to perceived violations highlight ceasefire fragility, while Lebanon's army reports stalled progress on a September 2025 disarmament plan after Hezbollah's February walkout. Traders monitor diplomatic negotiations and potential escalations for shifts in the group's entrenched resistance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
A fragile US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah took effect April 17, 2026, amid demands for the group's full disarmament as a condition for lasting de-escalation, following direct Lebanese-Israeli talks in Washington on April 14-15. Hezbollah leaders, including a top official in a rare April 21 interview and another on April 27, have categorically rejected disarmament, insisting on Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, prisoner releases, and reconstruction aid first. Ongoing Israeli strikes responding to perceived violations highlight ceasefire fragility, while Lebanon's army reports stalled progress on a September 2025 disarmament plan after Hezbollah's February walkout. Traders monitor diplomatic negotiations and potential escalations for shifts in the group's entrenched resistance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Apr 28 2026
Hezbollah conducts a drone strike against Israeli forces in southern Lebanon, demonstrating ongoing military capability and resistance, further undermining prospects for
Hezbollah conducts a drone strike against Israeli forces in southern Lebanon, demonstrating ongoing military capability and resistance, further undermining prospects for disarmament
Apr 27 2026
Qassem reaffirms Hezbollah’s categorical rejection of disarmament in a statement condemning direct negotiations with Israel and praising Iran’s role in ceasefire talks, signaling
December 31 drops to 22%5%
Qassem reaffirms Hezbollah’s categorical rejection of disarmament in a statement condemning direct negotiations with Israel and praising Iran’s role in ceasefire talks, signaling no change in Hezbollah’s official policy.
Apr 27 2026
Naim Qassem issues a statement asserting Hezbollah’s military strength remains intact and that disarmament is off the table, coinciding with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s
April 30 dips to 0%3%
Naim Qassem issues a statement asserting Hezbollah’s military strength remains intact and that disarmament is off the table, coinciding with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s admission that Hezbollah’s missiles and drones remain a major threat
Apr 26 2026
Israeli airstrikes hit Hezbollah missile sites in eastern Baalbek, underscoring the ongoing conflict and eliminating any remaining optimism for a disarmament announcement
April 30 dips to 0%4%
Israeli airstrikes hit Hezbollah missile sites in eastern Baalbek, underscoring the ongoing conflict and eliminating any remaining optimism for a disarmament announcement
Apr 25 2026
Hezbollah’s senior official publicly declares that “disarmament is an Israeli‑American demand” and that the group will only consider it after Israel fully withdraws, prompting a
April 30 rises to 4%4%
Hezbollah’s senior official publicly declares that “disarmament is an Israeli‑American demand” and that the group will only consider it after Israel fully withdraws, prompting a brief rally to 4 % before the
Apr 25 2026
A brief rally to 4 % follows reports that Israeli airstrikes targeted Hezbollah’s missile depots in Baalbek, suggesting the group’s arsenal remains intact and disarmament unlikely
April 30 rises to 4%4%
A brief rally to 4 % follows reports that Israeli airstrikes targeted Hezbollah’s missile depots in Baalbek, suggesting the group’s arsenal remains intact and disarmament unlikely
Apr 23 2026
Hezbollah’s senior MP Ali Fayyad publicly rejects any direct negotiations with Israel while Qassem again declares the group will not surrender its weapons, prompting the market to
April 30 dips to 0%4%
Hezbollah’s senior MP Ali Fayyad publicly rejects any direct negotiations with Israel while Qassem again declares the group will not surrender its weapons, prompting the market to slide back to 0 %
Apr 20 2026
Israeli drones strike a Hezbollah vehicle in southern Lebanon, a retaliation after Qassem’s recent statement that “Hezbollah will not allow anyone to disarm it,” reinforcing the
April 30 rises to 4%2%
Israeli drones strike a Hezbollah vehicle in southern Lebanon, a retaliation after Qassem’s recent statement that “Hezbollah will not allow anyone to disarm it,” reinforcing the militia’s refusal to lay down arms
Apr 18 2026
Naim Qassem outlines five conditions for peace with Israel, dismissing the US-brokered ceasefire as meaningless and affirming Hezbollah’s readiness to maintain arms and respond to
Naim Qassem outlines five conditions for peace with Israel, dismissing the US-brokered ceasefire as meaningless and affirming Hezbollah’s readiness to maintain arms and respond to violations, reinforcing the group’s refusal to disarm
Apr 15 2026
Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem publicly denounces Lebanese government’s disarmament plan as a US-Israeli scheme, warning that Hezbollah will never surrender its weapons
April 30 dips to 1%1%
Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem publicly denounces Lebanese government’s disarmament plan as a US-Israeli scheme, warning that Hezbollah will never surrender its weapons and accusing the government of weakening Lebanon’s defense
Apr 13 2026
Qassem publicly urges Lebanon’s government to pull out of planned talks with Israel, calling them a “free concession” and accusing the government of backstabbing Hezbollah,
December 31 drops to 27%10%
Qassem publicly urges Lebanon’s government to pull out of planned talks with Israel, calling them a “free concession” and accusing the government of backstabbing Hezbollah, reinforcing the group’s rejection of disarmament.
Apr 13 2026
In a pre‑recorded speech Qassem again dismisses the Lebanese government’s disarmament plan as a “grave sin” and vows Hezbollah will never surrender its weapons
April 30 dips to 0%1%
In a pre‑recorded speech Qassem again dismisses the Lebanese government’s disarmament plan as a “grave sin” and vows Hezbollah will never surrender its weapons
Apr 9 2026
Naim Qassem delivers a defiant speech emphasizing Hezbollah’s resilience and rejecting any concessions before Israeli compliance, signaling no intention to disarm despite ongoing
April 30 plunges to 1%15%
Naim Qassem delivers a defiant speech emphasizing Hezbollah’s resilience and rejecting any concessions before Israeli compliance, signaling no intention to disarm despite ongoing Israeli strikes and diplomatic talks
Apr 9 2026
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announces direct peace talks with Lebanon focused on disarming Hezbollah;
December 31 jumps to 37%7%
Hezbollah rejects these talks as futile and a tool of Israel, with Qassem reiterating refusal to disarm.
Apr 9 2026
Qassem’s televised address to “resilient and sacrificial Lebanese” rejects any talks on disarmament and warns against Israeli‑backed negotiations, reinforcing Hezbollah’s refusal
April 30 dips to 1%4%
Qassem’s televised address to “resilient and sacrificial Lebanese” rejects any talks on disarmament and warns against Israeli‑backed negotiations, reinforcing Hezbollah’s refusal to lay down arms
Apr 9 2026
Reuters reports Israel’s push for direct talks with Lebanon “as soon as possible” on Hezbollah disarmament, while Qassem’s televised speech re‑asserts the group will not accept
April 30 dips to 3%2%
Reuters reports Israel’s push for direct talks with Lebanon “as soon as possible” on Hezbollah disarmament, while Qassem’s televised speech re‑asserts the group will not accept any concessions
Apr 2 2026
Israeli defence minister Israel Katz warns Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem he will pay a “heavy
April 30 drops to 5%11%
Israeli defence minister Israel Katz warns Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem he will pay a “heavy
Mar 7 2026
Lebanese Minister of Justice considers legal action against Qassem following his accusations that the government is carrying out Israeli orders, highlighting internal political
December 31 plunges to 40%18%
Lebanese Minister of Justice considers legal action against Qassem following his accusations that the government is carrying out Israeli orders, highlighting internal political tensions and Hezbollah’s resistance to disarmament.
Mar 2 2026
Hezbollah escalates conflict by firing rockets and drones at Israel, breaking the ceasefire;
December 31 surges to 58%24%
Lebanese Cabinet proscribes Hezbollah’s military activities, but Qassem rejects disarmament and vows to fight to the end.
Feb 25 2026
In a speech commemorating assassinated party officials, Qassem calls on the Lebanese government to withdraw its disarmament decision, framing it as serving Israel’s interests and
In a speech commemorating assassinated party officials, Qassem calls on the Lebanese government to withdraw its disarmament decision, framing it as serving Israel’s interests and signaling Hezbollah’s continued defiance.
Feb 17 2026
Hezbollah officially rejects the Lebanese government’s disarmament plan and timeline, with Qassem stating disarmament efforts serve Israeli goals, intensifying doubts about
December 31 dips to 34%3%
Hezbollah officially rejects the Lebanese government’s disarmament plan and timeline, with Qassem stating disarmament efforts serve Israeli goals, intensifying doubts about Hezbollah’s willingness to disarm.
Feb 17 2026
Hezbollah rejects Lebanese government’s four‑month disarmament timeline, with Secretary‑General Naim Qassem calling the plan a “major mistake” that serves Israeli aggression
April 30 drops to 5%11%
Hezbollah rejects Lebanese government’s four‑month disarmament timeline, with Secretary‑General Naim Qassem calling the plan a “major mistake” that serves Israeli aggression
Feb 16 2026
Lebanese government announces a four-month timeline for the second phase of Hezbollah disarmament;
December 31 drops to 37%14%
Hezbollah’s Qassem calls this a “grave mistake” serving Israeli aggression and rejects any monopoly on arms by the state.
Feb 3 2026
Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem delivers a defiant speech marking the 33rd anniversary of Hezbollah’s Mahdi Schools, emphasizing Hezbollah’s refusal to disarm and framing
December 31 drops to 48%5%
Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem delivers a defiant speech marking the 33rd anniversary of Hezbollah’s Mahdi Schools, emphasizing Hezbollah’s refusal to disarm and framing disarmament as stripping Lebanon of its strength, reinforcing resistance against Israel and the US.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.A fragile US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah took effect April 17, 2026, amid demands for the group's full disarmament as a condition for lasting de-escalation, following direct Lebanese-Israeli talks in Washington on April 14-15. Hezbollah leaders, including a top official in a rare April 21 interview and another on April 27, have categorically rejected disarmament, insisting on Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, prisoner releases, and reconstruction aid first. Ongoing Israeli strikes responding to perceived violations highlight ceasefire fragility, while Lebanon's army reports stalled progress on a September 2025 disarmament plan after Hezbollah's February walkout. Traders monitor diplomatic negotiations and potential escalations for shifts in the group's entrenched resistance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
A fragile US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah took effect April 17, 2026, amid demands for the group's full disarmament as a condition for lasting de-escalation, following direct Lebanese-Israeli talks in Washington on April 14-15. Hezbollah leaders, including a top official in a rare April 21 interview and another on April 27, have categorically rejected disarmament, insisting on Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, prisoner releases, and reconstruction aid first. Ongoing Israeli strikes responding to perceived violations highlight ceasefire fragility, while Lebanon's army reports stalled progress on a September 2025 disarmament plan after Hezbollah's February walkout. Traders monitor diplomatic negotiations and potential escalations for shifts in the group's entrenched resistance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Apr 28 2026
Hezbollah conducts a drone strike against Israeli forces in southern Lebanon, demonstrating ongoing military capability and resistance, further undermining prospects for
Hezbollah conducts a drone strike against Israeli forces in southern Lebanon, demonstrating ongoing military capability and resistance, further undermining prospects for disarmament
Apr 27 2026
Qassem reaffirms Hezbollah’s categorical rejection of disarmament in a statement condemning direct negotiations with Israel and praising Iran’s role in ceasefire talks, signaling
December 31 drops to 22%5%
Qassem reaffirms Hezbollah’s categorical rejection of disarmament in a statement condemning direct negotiations with Israel and praising Iran’s role in ceasefire talks, signaling no change in Hezbollah’s official policy.
Apr 27 2026
Naim Qassem issues a statement asserting Hezbollah’s military strength remains intact and that disarmament is off the table, coinciding with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s
April 30 dips to 0%3%
Naim Qassem issues a statement asserting Hezbollah’s military strength remains intact and that disarmament is off the table, coinciding with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s admission that Hezbollah’s missiles and drones remain a major threat
Apr 26 2026
Israeli airstrikes hit Hezbollah missile sites in eastern Baalbek, underscoring the ongoing conflict and eliminating any remaining optimism for a disarmament announcement
April 30 dips to 0%4%
Israeli airstrikes hit Hezbollah missile sites in eastern Baalbek, underscoring the ongoing conflict and eliminating any remaining optimism for a disarmament announcement
Apr 25 2026
Hezbollah’s senior official publicly declares that “disarmament is an Israeli‑American demand” and that the group will only consider it after Israel fully withdraws, prompting a
April 30 rises to 4%4%
Hezbollah’s senior official publicly declares that “disarmament is an Israeli‑American demand” and that the group will only consider it after Israel fully withdraws, prompting a brief rally to 4 % before the
Apr 25 2026
A brief rally to 4 % follows reports that Israeli airstrikes targeted Hezbollah’s missile depots in Baalbek, suggesting the group’s arsenal remains intact and disarmament unlikely
April 30 rises to 4%4%
A brief rally to 4 % follows reports that Israeli airstrikes targeted Hezbollah’s missile depots in Baalbek, suggesting the group’s arsenal remains intact and disarmament unlikely
Apr 23 2026
Hezbollah’s senior MP Ali Fayyad publicly rejects any direct negotiations with Israel while Qassem again declares the group will not surrender its weapons, prompting the market to
April 30 dips to 0%4%
Hezbollah’s senior MP Ali Fayyad publicly rejects any direct negotiations with Israel while Qassem again declares the group will not surrender its weapons, prompting the market to slide back to 0 %
Apr 20 2026
Israeli drones strike a Hezbollah vehicle in southern Lebanon, a retaliation after Qassem’s recent statement that “Hezbollah will not allow anyone to disarm it,” reinforcing the
April 30 rises to 4%2%
Israeli drones strike a Hezbollah vehicle in southern Lebanon, a retaliation after Qassem’s recent statement that “Hezbollah will not allow anyone to disarm it,” reinforcing the militia’s refusal to lay down arms
Apr 18 2026
Naim Qassem outlines five conditions for peace with Israel, dismissing the US-brokered ceasefire as meaningless and affirming Hezbollah’s readiness to maintain arms and respond to
Naim Qassem outlines five conditions for peace with Israel, dismissing the US-brokered ceasefire as meaningless and affirming Hezbollah’s readiness to maintain arms and respond to violations, reinforcing the group’s refusal to disarm
Apr 15 2026
Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem publicly denounces Lebanese government’s disarmament plan as a US-Israeli scheme, warning that Hezbollah will never surrender its weapons
April 30 dips to 1%1%
Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem publicly denounces Lebanese government’s disarmament plan as a US-Israeli scheme, warning that Hezbollah will never surrender its weapons and accusing the government of weakening Lebanon’s defense
Apr 13 2026
Qassem publicly urges Lebanon’s government to pull out of planned talks with Israel, calling them a “free concession” and accusing the government of backstabbing Hezbollah,
December 31 drops to 27%10%
Qassem publicly urges Lebanon’s government to pull out of planned talks with Israel, calling them a “free concession” and accusing the government of backstabbing Hezbollah, reinforcing the group’s rejection of disarmament.
Apr 13 2026
In a pre‑recorded speech Qassem again dismisses the Lebanese government’s disarmament plan as a “grave sin” and vows Hezbollah will never surrender its weapons
April 30 dips to 0%1%
In a pre‑recorded speech Qassem again dismisses the Lebanese government’s disarmament plan as a “grave sin” and vows Hezbollah will never surrender its weapons
Apr 9 2026
Naim Qassem delivers a defiant speech emphasizing Hezbollah’s resilience and rejecting any concessions before Israeli compliance, signaling no intention to disarm despite ongoing
April 30 plunges to 1%15%
Naim Qassem delivers a defiant speech emphasizing Hezbollah’s resilience and rejecting any concessions before Israeli compliance, signaling no intention to disarm despite ongoing Israeli strikes and diplomatic talks
Apr 9 2026
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announces direct peace talks with Lebanon focused on disarming Hezbollah;
December 31 jumps to 37%7%
Hezbollah rejects these talks as futile and a tool of Israel, with Qassem reiterating refusal to disarm.
Apr 9 2026
Qassem’s televised address to “resilient and sacrificial Lebanese” rejects any talks on disarmament and warns against Israeli‑backed negotiations, reinforcing Hezbollah’s refusal
April 30 dips to 1%4%
Qassem’s televised address to “resilient and sacrificial Lebanese” rejects any talks on disarmament and warns against Israeli‑backed negotiations, reinforcing Hezbollah’s refusal to lay down arms
Apr 9 2026
Reuters reports Israel’s push for direct talks with Lebanon “as soon as possible” on Hezbollah disarmament, while Qassem’s televised speech re‑asserts the group will not accept
April 30 dips to 3%2%
Reuters reports Israel’s push for direct talks with Lebanon “as soon as possible” on Hezbollah disarmament, while Qassem’s televised speech re‑asserts the group will not accept any concessions
Apr 2 2026
Israeli defence minister Israel Katz warns Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem he will pay a “heavy
April 30 drops to 5%11%
Israeli defence minister Israel Katz warns Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem he will pay a “heavy
Mar 7 2026
Lebanese Minister of Justice considers legal action against Qassem following his accusations that the government is carrying out Israeli orders, highlighting internal political
December 31 plunges to 40%18%
Lebanese Minister of Justice considers legal action against Qassem following his accusations that the government is carrying out Israeli orders, highlighting internal political tensions and Hezbollah’s resistance to disarmament.
Mar 2 2026
Hezbollah escalates conflict by firing rockets and drones at Israel, breaking the ceasefire;
December 31 surges to 58%24%
Lebanese Cabinet proscribes Hezbollah’s military activities, but Qassem rejects disarmament and vows to fight to the end.
Feb 25 2026
In a speech commemorating assassinated party officials, Qassem calls on the Lebanese government to withdraw its disarmament decision, framing it as serving Israel’s interests and
In a speech commemorating assassinated party officials, Qassem calls on the Lebanese government to withdraw its disarmament decision, framing it as serving Israel’s interests and signaling Hezbollah’s continued defiance.
Feb 17 2026
Hezbollah officially rejects the Lebanese government’s disarmament plan and timeline, with Qassem stating disarmament efforts serve Israeli goals, intensifying doubts about
December 31 dips to 34%3%
Hezbollah officially rejects the Lebanese government’s disarmament plan and timeline, with Qassem stating disarmament efforts serve Israeli goals, intensifying doubts about Hezbollah’s willingness to disarm.
Feb 17 2026
Hezbollah rejects Lebanese government’s four‑month disarmament timeline, with Secretary‑General Naim Qassem calling the plan a “major mistake” that serves Israeli aggression
April 30 drops to 5%11%
Hezbollah rejects Lebanese government’s four‑month disarmament timeline, with Secretary‑General Naim Qassem calling the plan a “major mistake” that serves Israeli aggression
Feb 16 2026
Lebanese government announces a four-month timeline for the second phase of Hezbollah disarmament;
December 31 drops to 37%14%
Hezbollah’s Qassem calls this a “grave mistake” serving Israeli aggression and rejects any monopoly on arms by the state.
Feb 3 2026
Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem delivers a defiant speech marking the 33rd anniversary of Hezbollah’s Mahdi Schools, emphasizing Hezbollah’s refusal to disarm and framing
December 31 drops to 48%5%
Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem delivers a defiant speech marking the 33rd anniversary of Hezbollah’s Mahdi Schools, emphasizing Hezbollah’s refusal to disarm and framing disarmament as stripping Lebanon of its strength, reinforcing resistance against Israel and the US.
"Will Hezbollah disarm by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 22%, followed by "April 30" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 22¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 22% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.
As of today, "Will Hezbollah disarm by...?" has generated $1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.
To trade on "Will Hezbollah disarm by...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
The current frontrunner for "Will Hezbollah disarm by...?" is "December 31" at 22%, meaning the market assigns a 22% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "April 30" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.
The resolution rules for "Will Hezbollah disarm by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Will Hezbollah disarm by...?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.
Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $1 million traded on “Will Hezbollah disarm by...?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.
To place your first trade on "Will Hezbollah disarm by...?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.
On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 22¢ for "December 31" in the "Will Hezbollah disarm by...?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 22% chance that "December 31" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 22¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 78¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.
The "Will Hezbollah disarm by...?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Dec 31, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.
The "Will Hezbollah disarm by...?" market has an active community of 202 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.
Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Will Hezbollah disarm by...?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.
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