Ongoing El Niño development, confirmed by NOAA in June 2026 and expected to strengthen through winter, is the main catalyst supporting the 83.5% market-implied odds for a record monthly global temperature in 2026. Elevated baseline warmth from anthropogenic greenhouse gases has kept recent years near record levels, with 2025 ranking third warmest and January–April 2026 months placing among the top five for their respective periods per NOAA and Copernicus data. El Niño typically adds 0.1–0.2 °C to global anomalies, raising the likelihood that peak months will surpass prior highs such as 2023–2024 peaks. Weak La Niña conditions earlier in the year limited cooling, while accelerating long-term trends continue to compress the gap to new records. Traders weigh these dynamics against natural variability and potential forecast shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?
$141,084 Vol.
$141,084 Vol.
Jan 10, 2027
$141,084 Vol.
$141,084 Vol.
Jan 10, 2027
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Ongoing El Niño development, confirmed by NOAA in June 2026 and expected to strengthen through winter, is the main catalyst supporting the 83.5% market-implied odds for a record monthly global temperature in 2026. Elevated baseline warmth from anthropogenic greenhouse gases has kept recent years near record levels, with 2025 ranking third warmest and January–April 2026 months placing among the top five for their respective periods per NOAA and Copernicus data. El Niño typically adds 0.1–0.2 °C to global anomalies, raising the likelihood that peak months will surpass prior highs such as 2023–2024 peaks. Weak La Niña conditions earlier in the year limited cooling, while accelerating long-term trends continue to compress the gap to new records. Traders weigh these dynamics against natural variability and potential forecast shifts.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Market Opened: Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
Volume
$141,084End Date
Jan 10, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Ongoing El Niño development, confirmed by NOAA in June 2026 and expected to strengthen through winter, is the main catalyst supporting the 83.5% market-implied odds for a record monthly global temperature in 2026. Elevated baseline warmth from anthropogenic greenhouse gases has kept recent years near record levels, with 2025 ranking third warmest and January–April 2026 months placing among the top five for their respective periods per NOAA and Copernicus data. El Niño typically adds 0.1–0.2 °C to global anomalies, raising the likelihood that peak months will surpass prior highs such as 2023–2024 peaks. Weak La Niña conditions earlier in the year limited cooling, while accelerating long-term trends continue to compress the gap to new records. Traders weigh these dynamics against natural variability and potential forecast shifts.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$141,084End Date
Jan 10, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing El Niño development, confirmed by NOAA in June 2026 and expected to strengthen through winter, is the main catalyst supporting the 83.5% market-implied odds for a record monthly global temperature in 2026. Elevated baseline warmth from anthropogenic greenhouse gases has kept recent years near record levels, with 2025 ranking third warmest and January–April 2026 months placing among the top five for their respective periods per NOAA and Copernicus data. El Niño typically adds 0.1–0.2 °C to global anomalies, raising the likelihood that peak months will surpass prior highs such as 2023–2024 peaks. Weak La Niña conditions earlier in the year limited cooling, while accelerating long-term trends continue to compress the gap to new records. Traders weigh these dynamics against natural variability and potential forecast shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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