Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 95.8% implied probability of no hurricane forming in the Atlantic basin by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) latest Tropical Weather Outlook confirming zero active tropical cyclones or areas of interest as of April 30, with routine outlooks paused until May 15. Unfavorable conditions prevail, including cool sea surface temperatures below the 26.5°C threshold for sustained intensification in the main development region, high vertical wind shear from mid-level troughs, and weak African easterly waves. Historically, pre-June 1 Atlantic hurricanes (Saffir-Simpson Category 1 or higher, with sustained winds over 74 mph) number fewer than five since 1851, reinforcing this low-risk assessment amid below-normal seasonal forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University citing neutral-to-weak El Niño influences. A rapid, unforeseen intensification of a Caribbean low-pressure system or easterly wave could shift odds, though model consensus shows near-zero formation potential in the next 7–10 days.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill a hurricane form by May 31?
Will a hurricane form by May 31?
$46,272 Vol.
$46,272 Vol.
May 31, 2026
$46,272 Vol.
$46,272 Vol.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 95.8% implied probability of no hurricane forming in the Atlantic basin by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) latest Tropical Weather Outlook confirming zero active tropical cyclones or areas of interest as of April 30, with routine outlooks paused until May 15. Unfavorable conditions prevail, including cool sea surface temperatures below the 26.5°C threshold for sustained intensification in the main development region, high vertical wind shear from mid-level troughs, and weak African easterly waves. Historically, pre-June 1 Atlantic hurricanes (Saffir-Simpson Category 1 or higher, with sustained winds over 74 mph) number fewer than five since 1851, reinforcing this low-risk assessment amid below-normal seasonal forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University citing neutral-to-weak El Niño influences. A rapid, unforeseen intensification of a Caribbean low-pressure system or easterly wave could shift odds, though model consensus shows near-zero formation potential in the next 7–10 days.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Market Opened: Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
Volume
$46,272End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 95.8% implied probability of no hurricane forming in the Atlantic basin by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) latest Tropical Weather Outlook confirming zero active tropical cyclones or areas of interest as of April 30, with routine outlooks paused until May 15. Unfavorable conditions prevail, including cool sea surface temperatures below the 26.5°C threshold for sustained intensification in the main development region, high vertical wind shear from mid-level troughs, and weak African easterly waves. Historically, pre-June 1 Atlantic hurricanes (Saffir-Simpson Category 1 or higher, with sustained winds over 74 mph) number fewer than five since 1851, reinforcing this low-risk assessment amid below-normal seasonal forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University citing neutral-to-weak El Niño influences. A rapid, unforeseen intensification of a Caribbean low-pressure system or easterly wave could shift odds, though model consensus shows near-zero formation potential in the next 7–10 days.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Volume
$46,272End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 95.8% implied probability of no hurricane forming in the Atlantic basin by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) latest Tropical Weather Outlook confirming zero active tropical cyclones or areas of interest as of April 30, with routine outlooks paused until May 15. Unfavorable conditions prevail, including cool sea surface temperatures below the 26.5°C threshold for sustained intensification in the main development region, high vertical wind shear from mid-level troughs, and weak African easterly waves. Historically, pre-June 1 Atlantic hurricanes (Saffir-Simpson Category 1 or higher, with sustained winds over 74 mph) number fewer than five since 1851, reinforcing this low-risk assessment amid below-normal seasonal forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University citing neutral-to-weak El Niño influences. A rapid, unforeseen intensification of a Caribbean low-pressure system or easterly wave could shift odds, though model consensus shows near-zero formation potential in the next 7–10 days.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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