Amid the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, triggered by Iran's restrictions and mine deployments since late February, US Navy destroyers USS Frank E. Peterson Jr. and USS Michael Murphy transited the strait on April 11—the only confirmed warship passage—to support mine-clearing and escort operations, shaping trader consensus toward near-zero odds for other nations. European allies including UK, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, and Japan signaled readiness via joint statements and Paris talks around April 17 for a post-ceasefire defensive mission, but no official confirmations of their warships navigating the narrow waterway have emerged by April 30. Iranian threats against naval entrants and minimal commercial transits heighten risks, with the market resolving at midnight ET absent late-breaking developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhich countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30?
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30?
$3,361,321 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
United Kingdom
1%
France
<1%
Germany
<1%
Netherlands
<1%
Pakistan
<1%
India
<1%
Greece
<1%
Italy
<1%
Japan
<1%
Canada
<1%
$3,361,321 Vol.
United Kingdom
$444,302 Vol.
1%
France
$317,459 Vol.
<1%
Germany
$204,165 Vol.
<1%
Netherlands
$284,669 Vol.
<1%
Pakistan
$197,108 Vol.
<1%
India
$247,685 Vol.
<1%
Greece
$124,728 Vol.
<1%
Italy
$175,941 Vol.
<1%
Japan
$313,013 Vol.
<1%
Canada
$125,487 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Amid the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, triggered by Iran's restrictions and mine deployments since late February, US Navy destroyers USS Frank E. Peterson Jr. and USS Michael Murphy transited the strait on April 11—the only confirmed warship passage—to support mine-clearing and escort operations, shaping trader consensus toward near-zero odds for other nations. European allies including UK, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, and Japan signaled readiness via joint statements and Paris talks around April 17 for a post-ceasefire defensive mission, but no official confirmations of their warships navigating the narrow waterway have emerged by April 30. Iranian threats against naval entrants and minimal commercial transits heighten risks, with the market resolving at midnight ET absent late-breaking developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Market Opened: Mar 27, 2026, 1:36 PM ET
Volume
$3,361,321End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 1:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Amid the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, triggered by Iran's restrictions and mine deployments since late February, US Navy destroyers USS Frank E. Peterson Jr. and USS Michael Murphy transited the strait on April 11—the only confirmed warship passage—to support mine-clearing and escort operations, shaping trader consensus toward near-zero odds for other nations. European allies including UK, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, and Japan signaled readiness via joint statements and Paris talks around April 17 for a post-ceasefire defensive mission, but no official confirmations of their warships navigating the narrow waterway have emerged by April 30. Iranian threats against naval entrants and minimal commercial transits heighten risks, with the market resolving at midnight ET absent late-breaking developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$3,361,321End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 1:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, triggered by Iran's restrictions and mine deployments since late February, US Navy destroyers USS Frank E. Peterson Jr. and USS Michael Murphy transited the strait on April 11—the only confirmed warship passage—to support mine-clearing and escort operations, shaping trader consensus toward near-zero odds for other nations. European allies including UK, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, and Japan signaled readiness via joint statements and Paris talks around April 17 for a post-ceasefire defensive mission, but no official confirmations of their warships navigating the narrow waterway have emerged by April 30. Iranian threats against naval entrants and minimal commercial transits heighten risks, with the market resolving at midnight ET absent late-breaking developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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