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icon for Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?

Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?

icon for Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?

Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?

$14,998 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$14,998 Vol.

Polymarket

South Sudan

$597 Vol.

65%

Rwanda

$157 Vol.

56%

Burundi

$163 Vol.

48%

United States

$4,280 Vol.

42%

Canada

$839 Vol.

31%

Kenya

$141 Vol.

58%

India

$390 Vol.

29%

Republic of the Congo

$4,447 Vol.

19%

Nigeria

$24 Vol.

32%

Ethiopia

$64 Vol.

48%

Somalia

$65 Vol.

43%

China

$1,875 Vol.

31%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Ebola in the territory of the specified country reported between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any active laboratory-confirmed, or otherwise officially confirmed, Ebola infection identified within the territory of the specified country will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.An ongoing outbreak of Bundibugyo virus disease, a species of orthoebolavirus without approved vaccines or treatments, drives trader focus on confirmed cases through 2026. As of mid-June, the Democratic Republic of the Congo reports over 680 confirmed cases and Uganda nearly 20, following the May declaration of a public health emergency of international concern by WHO; conflict, population displacement, and cross-border movement in Ituri and neighboring provinces elevate transmission risk. Authoritative CDC and WHO surveillance shows no confirmed spread beyond these two nations to date, though South Sudan and other neighbors face elevated monitoring. Weekly ministry and WHO situation reports, plus model projections on case growth, represent key upcoming data that could shift probabilities for additional countries recording at least one laboratory-confirmed case by year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Ebola in the territory of the specified country reported between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any active laboratory-confirmed, or otherwise officially confirmed, Ebola infection identified within the territory of the specified country will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$14,998
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
May 22, 2026, 12:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Ebola in the territory of the specified country reported between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any active laboratory-confirmed, or otherwise officially confirmed, Ebola infection identified within the territory of the specified country will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Ebola in the territory of the specified country reported between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any active laboratory-confirmed, or otherwise officially confirmed, Ebola infection identified within the territory of the specified country will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.An ongoing outbreak of Bundibugyo virus disease, a species of orthoebolavirus without approved vaccines or treatments, drives trader focus on confirmed cases through 2026. As of mid-June, the Democratic Republic of the Congo reports over 680 confirmed cases and Uganda nearly 20, following the May declaration of a public health emergency of international concern by WHO; conflict, population displacement, and cross-border movement in Ituri and neighboring provinces elevate transmission risk. Authoritative CDC and WHO surveillance shows no confirmed spread beyond these two nations to date, though South Sudan and other neighbors face elevated monitoring. Weekly ministry and WHO situation reports, plus model projections on case growth, represent key upcoming data that could shift probabilities for additional countries recording at least one laboratory-confirmed case by year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Ebola in the territory of the specified country reported between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any active laboratory-confirmed, or otherwise officially confirmed, Ebola infection identified within the territory of the specified country will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$14,998
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
May 22, 2026, 12:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Ebola in the territory of the specified country reported between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any active laboratory-confirmed, or otherwise officially confirmed, Ebola infection identified within the territory of the specified country will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Uganda" at 100%, followed by "South Sudan" at 65%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?" has generated $15K in total trading volume since the market launched on May 22, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?" is "Uganda" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "South Sudan" at 65%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.