Recent U.S.-China summits and preliminary accords have sustained trader expectations for a tariff agreement by year-end. President Trump’s May 2026 Beijing visit produced commitments to establish bilateral trade and investment boards, reciprocal tariff reductions on select goods including agriculture, and expanded purchase targets, building on the November 2025 framework that extended suspensions until November 2026. Ongoing talks through established channels continue to address remaining duties, while a July 2026 public hearing on new proposed levies tied to forced labor adds near-term negotiating pressure. These verifiable diplomatic and procedural steps underpin the 69.5 percent implied probability for resolution before December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUS x China tariff agreement by December 31?
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
$14,124 Vol.
$14,124 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$14,124 Vol.
$14,124 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent U.S.-China summits and preliminary accords have sustained trader expectations for a tariff agreement by year-end. President Trump’s May 2026 Beijing visit produced commitments to establish bilateral trade and investment boards, reciprocal tariff reductions on select goods including agriculture, and expanded purchase targets, building on the November 2025 framework that extended suspensions until November 2026. Ongoing talks through established channels continue to address remaining duties, while a July 2026 public hearing on new proposed levies tied to forced labor adds near-term negotiating pressure. These verifiable diplomatic and procedural steps underpin the 69.5 percent implied probability for resolution before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Market Opened: May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ET
Volume
$14,124End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent U.S.-China summits and preliminary accords have sustained trader expectations for a tariff agreement by year-end. President Trump’s May 2026 Beijing visit produced commitments to establish bilateral trade and investment boards, reciprocal tariff reductions on select goods including agriculture, and expanded purchase targets, building on the November 2025 framework that extended suspensions until November 2026. Ongoing talks through established channels continue to address remaining duties, while a July 2026 public hearing on new proposed levies tied to forced labor adds near-term negotiating pressure. These verifiable diplomatic and procedural steps underpin the 69.5 percent implied probability for resolution before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$14,124End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-China summits and preliminary accords have sustained trader expectations for a tariff agreement by year-end. President Trump’s May 2026 Beijing visit produced commitments to establish bilateral trade and investment boards, reciprocal tariff reductions on select goods including agriculture, and expanded purchase targets, building on the November 2025 framework that extended suspensions until November 2026. Ongoing talks through established channels continue to address remaining duties, while a July 2026 public hearing on new proposed levies tied to forced labor adds near-term negotiating pressure. These verifiable diplomatic and procedural steps underpin the 69.5 percent implied probability for resolution before December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions