Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, which began in late February 2026, continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to a small fraction of the pre-crisis average near 100 vessels daily. Limited U.S. naval coordination has facilitated roughly 70 escorted transits over the prior three weeks, with modest additional passages cleared via Iranian permits, including reports of 24–28 vessels in single 24-hour periods around early June. Persistent risks from missile threats, mines, fast-attack boats, and war-risk insurance premiums up to 4% keep most shipping firms sidelined, leaving hundreds of tankers stranded and anchoring volumes in the low double digits per day. These dynamics position the 25-49 weekly transits range as the dominant market-implied outcome for June 1–7, with traders monitoring any escalation or diplomatic breakthroughs for shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of June 1?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of June 1?
25-49 77%
50-74 13%
<25 6%
75-99 1.9%
$23,550 Vol.
$23,550 Vol.
Jun 7, 2026
<25
6%
25-49
77%
50-74
13%
75-99
2%
100+
2%
25-49 77%
50-74 13%
<25 6%
75-99 1.9%
$23,550 Vol.
$23,550 Vol.
Jun 7, 2026
<25
$7,983 Vol.
6%
25-49
$4,410 Vol.
77%
50-74
$5,277 Vol.
13%
75-99
$2,666 Vol.
2%
100+
$3,214 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 1, 2026, through June 7, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, which began in late February 2026, continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to a small fraction of the pre-crisis average near 100 vessels daily. Limited U.S. naval coordination has facilitated roughly 70 escorted transits over the prior three weeks, with modest additional passages cleared via Iranian permits, including reports of 24–28 vessels in single 24-hour periods around early June. Persistent risks from missile threats, mines, fast-attack boats, and war-risk insurance premiums up to 4% keep most shipping firms sidelined, leaving hundreds of tankers stranded and anchoring volumes in the low double digits per day. These dynamics position the 25-49 weekly transits range as the dominant market-implied outcome for June 1–7, with traders monitoring any escalation or diplomatic breakthroughs for shifts.
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 1, 2026, through June 7, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: Jun 1, 2026, 12:23 PM ET
Volume
$23,550End Date
Jun 7, 2026Market Opened
Jun 1, 2026, 12:23 PM ETResolution Source
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 1, 2026, through June 7, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, which began in late February 2026, continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to a small fraction of the pre-crisis average near 100 vessels daily. Limited U.S. naval coordination has facilitated roughly 70 escorted transits over the prior three weeks, with modest additional passages cleared via Iranian permits, including reports of 24–28 vessels in single 24-hour periods around early June. Persistent risks from missile threats, mines, fast-attack boats, and war-risk insurance premiums up to 4% keep most shipping firms sidelined, leaving hundreds of tankers stranded and anchoring volumes in the low double digits per day. These dynamics position the 25-49 weekly transits range as the dominant market-implied outcome for June 1–7, with traders monitoring any escalation or diplomatic breakthroughs for shifts.
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 1, 2026, through June 7, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$23,550End Date
Jun 7, 2026Market Opened
Jun 1, 2026, 12:23 PM ETResolution Source
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, which began in late February 2026, continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to a small fraction of the pre-crisis average near 100 vessels daily. Limited U.S. naval coordination has facilitated roughly 70 escorted transits over the prior three weeks, with modest additional passages cleared via Iranian permits, including reports of 24–28 vessels in single 24-hour periods around early June. Persistent risks from missile threats, mines, fast-attack boats, and war-risk insurance premiums up to 4% keep most shipping firms sidelined, leaving hundreds of tankers stranded and anchoring volumes in the low double digits per day. These dynamics position the 25-49 weekly transits range as the dominant market-implied outcome for June 1–7, with traders monitoring any escalation or diplomatic breakthroughs for shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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