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Geopolitics·Trump

Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

icon for Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
Geopolitics·Trump

Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

$260,409 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$260,409 Vol.

Polymarket

Canada

$2,406 Vol.

40%

South Korea

$54,479 Vol.

27%

Israel

$310 Vol.

24%

India

$37,915 Vol.

23%

Japan

$4,766 Vol.

21%

Mexico

$1,792 Vol.

39%

Brazil

$3,022 Vol.

18%

United Kingdom

$419 Vol.

25%

Argentina

$19,897 Vol.

17%

Russia

$1,979 Vol.

17%

Taiwan

$31,627 Vol.

17%

Vietnam

$5,090 Vol.

15%

Pakistan

$71,371 Vol.

14%

South Africa

$354 Vol.

14%

Indonesia

$18,697 Vol.

13%

Australia

$1,893 Vol.

12%

European Union

$4,391 Vol.

10%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's reciprocal trade agenda, enforced through tariffs, has driven bilateral agreements like the historic U.S.-India deal announced February 2, 2026, reducing mutual tariffs, and the U.S.-Indonesia pact finalized February 19, alongside earlier pacts with Argentina, El Salvador, Ecuador, and Guatemala in late 2025. Trader consensus favors Canada and Mexico—implied probabilities near 40%—amid USMCA review negotiations, with USTR scheduling Mexico's first bilateral round the week of May 4. The USTR's March 2026 Trade Policy Agenda targets further reciprocal pacts and enforcement, though a February Supreme Court ruling limited some tariff authorities. Year-end deadlines and potential summits could spur additional deals before 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$260,409
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 5:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's reciprocal trade agenda, enforced through tariffs, has driven bilateral agreements like the historic U.S.-India deal announced February 2, 2026, reducing mutual tariffs, and the U.S.-Indonesia pact finalized February 19, alongside earlier pacts with Argentina, El Salvador, Ecuador, and Guatemala in late 2025. Trader consensus favors Canada and Mexico—implied probabilities near 40%—amid USMCA review negotiations, with USTR scheduling Mexico's first bilateral round the week of May 4. The USTR's March 2026 Trade Policy Agenda targets further reciprocal pacts and enforcement, though a February Supreme Court ruling limited some tariff authorities. Year-end deadlines and potential summits could spur additional deals before 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$260,409
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 5:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 17 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Canada" at 40%, followed by "Mexico" at 39%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 40¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?" has generated $260.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?," browse the 17 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?" is "Canada" at 40%, meaning the market assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Mexico" at 39%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.