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Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

icon for Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

$337,796 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$337,796 Vol.

Polymarket

Mexico

$2,472 Vol.

30%

United Kingdom

$419 Vol.

25%

India

$51,693 Vol.

23%

South Korea

$56,310 Vol.

24%

Australia

$6,099 Vol.

17%

Canada

$2,741 Vol.

17%

Vietnam

$5,361 Vol.

17%

Indonesia

$19,016 Vol.

15%

South Africa

$386 Vol.

15%

Israel

$366 Vol.

15%

Taiwan

$32,117 Vol.

17%

Pakistan

$103,769 Vol.

10%

Brazil

$4,148 Vol.

9%

European Union

$12,612 Vol.

8%

Russia

$2,043 Vol.

8%

Argentina

$21,474 Vol.

7%

Japan

$16,772 Vol.

12%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s second-term trade strategy has centered on using broad tariff authorities under IEEPA and Section 122, followed by Section 301 investigations, to pressure partners into reciprocal frameworks known as Agreements on Reciprocal Trade. Multiple bilateral deals or frameworks were reached in 2025–early 2026 with the United Kingdom, Japan, Indonesia, South Korea, the EU, India, Argentina, and several Southeast Asian nations, often reducing baseline tariff rates in exchange for market access and investment commitments. The 2026 Trade Policy Agenda emphasizes continued ART negotiations, enforcement of existing pacts, a USMCA joint review with Canada and Mexico, and new plurilateral efforts on critical minerals supply chains. These developments, alongside ongoing talks with additional partners, shape expectations for further agreements before 2027 while highlighting the administration’s preference for bilateral, modifiable arrangements over traditional congressional-approved pacts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$337,796
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 5:02 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s second-term trade strategy has centered on using broad tariff authorities under IEEPA and Section 122, followed by Section 301 investigations, to pressure partners into reciprocal frameworks known as Agreements on Reciprocal Trade. Multiple bilateral deals or frameworks were reached in 2025–early 2026 with the United Kingdom, Japan, Indonesia, South Korea, the EU, India, Argentina, and several Southeast Asian nations, often reducing baseline tariff rates in exchange for market access and investment commitments. The 2026 Trade Policy Agenda emphasizes continued ART negotiations, enforcement of existing pacts, a USMCA joint review with Canada and Mexico, and new plurilateral efforts on critical minerals supply chains. These developments, alongside ongoing talks with additional partners, shape expectations for further agreements before 2027 while highlighting the administration’s preference for bilateral, modifiable arrangements over traditional congressional-approved pacts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$337,796
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 5:02 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 17 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mexico" at 30%, followed by "United Kingdom" at 25%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 30¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 30% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?" has generated $337.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?," browse the 17 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?" is "Mexico" at 30%, meaning the market assigns a 30% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "United Kingdom" at 25%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.