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Elections·Global Elections

Somaliland Parliamentary Election Winner

icon for Somaliland Parliamentary Election Winner
Elections·Global Elections

Somaliland Parliamentary Election Winner

No election before 2027 78%

Waddani 31.4%

Justice and Welfare (UCID) 5.2%

Kulmiye 1.0%

Polymarket

$17,401 Vol.

No election before 2027 78%

Waddani 31.4%

Justice and Welfare (UCID) 5.2%

Kulmiye 1.0%

Polymarket

$17,401 Vol.

icon for No election before 2027

No election before 2027

$9,323 Vol.

82%

icon for Waddani

Waddani

$1,932 Vol.

31%

icon for Justice and Welfare (UCID)

Justice and Welfare (UCID)

$3,839 Vol.

5%

icon for Kulmiye

Kulmiye

$2,306 Vol.

13%

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Somaliland in late March 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Somaliland House of Representatives (Golaha Wakiilada) election. If no election takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No election before 2027". If an election takes place but the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the certified results are released. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Somaliland Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Somaliland government, specifically the Somaliland National Electoral Commission (Komishanka Doorashooyinka Qaranka) (slnec.net).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027 at 85%, driven by the House of Elders' (Guurti) April 28 decision to approve a 27-month term extension amid rising constitutional friction and opposition criticism, effectively postponing polls from their late March 2026 schedule. This recent development has intensified political tensions, with international observers like the UK and Switzerland urging adherence to timelines for democratic stability. Conditional on elections occurring, Waddani leads at 37.7% as President Abdirahman Irro's incumbent party post-2024 presidential victory, ahead of former ruling Kulmiye (14.5%) and UCID (5.2%), reflecting trader assessments of party momentum and historical competitiveness in Somaliland's multi-party system.

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Somaliland in late March 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Somaliland House of Representatives (Golaha Wakiilada) election.

If no election takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No election before 2027".

If an election takes place but the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the certified results are released. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Somaliland Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Somaliland government, specifically the Somaliland National Electoral Commission (Komishanka Doorashooyinka Qaranka) (slnec.net).
Volume
$17,401
End Date
Mar 31, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 3:30 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Somaliland in late March 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Somaliland House of Representatives (Golaha Wakiilada) election. If no election takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No election before 2027". If an election takes place but the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the certified results are released. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Somaliland Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Somaliland government, specifically the Somaliland National Electoral Commission (Komishanka Doorashooyinka Qaranka) (slnec.net).
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Somaliland in late March 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Somaliland House of Representatives (Golaha Wakiilada) election. If no election takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No election before 2027". If an election takes place but the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the certified results are released. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Somaliland Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Somaliland government, specifically the Somaliland National Electoral Commission (Komishanka Doorashooyinka Qaranka) (slnec.net).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027 at 85%, driven by the House of Elders' (Guurti) April 28 decision to approve a 27-month term extension amid rising constitutional friction and opposition criticism, effectively postponing polls from their late March 2026 schedule. This recent development has intensified political tensions, with international observers like the UK and Switzerland urging adherence to timelines for democratic stability. Conditional on elections occurring, Waddani leads at 37.7% as President Abdirahman Irro's incumbent party post-2024 presidential victory, ahead of former ruling Kulmiye (14.5%) and UCID (5.2%), reflecting trader assessments of party momentum and historical competitiveness in Somaliland's multi-party system.

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Somaliland in late March 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Somaliland House of Representatives (Golaha Wakiilada) election.

If no election takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No election before 2027".

If an election takes place but the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the certified results are released. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Somaliland Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Somaliland government, specifically the Somaliland National Electoral Commission (Komishanka Doorashooyinka Qaranka) (slnec.net).
Volume
$17,401
End Date
Mar 31, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 3:30 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Somaliland in late March 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Somaliland House of Representatives (Golaha Wakiilada) election. If no election takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No election before 2027". If an election takes place but the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the certified results are released. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Somaliland Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Somaliland government, specifically the Somaliland National Electoral Commission (Komishanka Doorashooyinka Qaranka) (slnec.net).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Somaliland Parliamentary Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "No election before 2027" at 82%, followed by "Waddani" at 31%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 82¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Somaliland Parliamentary Election Winner" has generated $17.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 16, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Somaliland Parliamentary Election Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Somaliland Parliamentary Election Winner" is "No election before 2027" at 82%, meaning the market assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Waddani" at 31%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Somaliland Parliamentary Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.