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Elections·Mayoral Elections

Ottawa Mayoral Election Winner

icon for Ottawa Mayoral Election Winner
Elections·Mayoral Elections

Ottawa Mayoral Election Winner

Mark Sutcliffe 63%

Jeff Leiper 19%

Alex Lawson 5.5%

Catherine McKenney 3.1%

Polymarket
NEW

Mark Sutcliffe 63%

Jeff Leiper 19%

Alex Lawson 5.5%

Catherine McKenney 3.1%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Mark Sutcliffe

Mark Sutcliffe

$3,009 Vol.

63%

icon for Jeff Leiper

Jeff Leiper

$1,401 Vol.

19%

icon for Alex Lawson

Alex Lawson

$1,024 Vol.

6%

icon for Catherine McKenney

Catherine McKenney

$2,050 Vol.

3%

icon for Neil Saravanamuttoo

Neil Saravanamuttoo

$776 Vol.

<1%

The 2026 Ottawa mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Ottawa as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Ottawa.Incumbent Mayor Mark Sutcliffe holds a commanding 62.5% implied probability on prediction markets for the October 26, 2026 Ottawa municipal election, driven by his lead in the latest Liaison Strategies vote intention poll (April 11-12; n=1,000), capturing 46% among decided voters versus Councillor Jeff Leiper's 37% and homebuilder Alex Lawson's 13%, amid roughly 50% undecideds. Trader consensus reflects incumbency advantages like name recognition and a fragmented opposition splitting anti-Sutcliffe votes on issues such as housing affordability, public transit failures, and homelessness—where recent polling shows majority disapproval of his handling. Leiper trails at 18.5% as the primary progressive challenger, with Lawson at 5.3% appealing on crime and development, while Catherine McKenney lingers at 3.3% without a declared bid. Nomination period opens today, May 1, potentially clarifying the field.

The 2026 Ottawa mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Ottawa as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Ottawa.
Volume
$8,261
End Date
Oct 26, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 2, 2026, 4:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 Ottawa mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Ottawa as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Ottawa.
The 2026 Ottawa mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Ottawa as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Ottawa.Incumbent Mayor Mark Sutcliffe holds a commanding 62.5% implied probability on prediction markets for the October 26, 2026 Ottawa municipal election, driven by his lead in the latest Liaison Strategies vote intention poll (April 11-12; n=1,000), capturing 46% among decided voters versus Councillor Jeff Leiper's 37% and homebuilder Alex Lawson's 13%, amid roughly 50% undecideds. Trader consensus reflects incumbency advantages like name recognition and a fragmented opposition splitting anti-Sutcliffe votes on issues such as housing affordability, public transit failures, and homelessness—where recent polling shows majority disapproval of his handling. Leiper trails at 18.5% as the primary progressive challenger, with Lawson at 5.3% appealing on crime and development, while Catherine McKenney lingers at 3.3% without a declared bid. Nomination period opens today, May 1, potentially clarifying the field.

The 2026 Ottawa mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Ottawa as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Ottawa.
Volume
$8,261
End Date
Oct 26, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 2, 2026, 4:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 Ottawa mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Ottawa as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Ottawa.

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Ottawa Mayoral Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mark Sutcliffe" at 63%, followed by "Jeff Leiper" at 19%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 63¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 63% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Ottawa Mayoral Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 2, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Ottawa Mayoral Election Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Ottawa Mayoral Election Winner" is "Mark Sutcliffe" at 63%, meaning the market assigns a 63% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Jeff Leiper" at 19%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Ottawa Mayoral Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.