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Politics·Russia

How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?

icon for How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?
Politics·Russia

How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?

340–354 30%

325–339 19%

310–324 16.9%

355+ 14%

Polymarket

$32,435 Vol.

340–354 30%

325–339 19%

310–324 16.9%

355+ 14%

Polymarket

$32,435 Vol.

<280

$6,879 Vol.

6%

280–294

$2,833 Vol.

5%

295–309

$1,784 Vol.

6%

310–324

$1,442 Vol.

17%

325–339

$2,287 Vol.

27%

340–354

$1,828 Vol.

30%

355+

$15,382 Vol.

14%

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.United Russia enters the September 2026 State Duma election holding a commanding position after its 2021 result of 324 seats, backed by administrative resources, electronic primaries, and a candidate list led by Dmitry Medvedev that incorporates figures from the “special military operation.” Recent regional legislative votes in 2025 showed the party improving its performance in most areas through mobilization and limited opposition space. Polling trends place its support in the mid-30s to low-40s percent range across major survey organizations, sufficient under the mixed electoral system for a large majority but leaving room for variation in single-member districts and turnout. Trader odds cluster tightly between the 325–339 and 340–354 seat bands because small shifts in proportional results, district outcomes, or the performance of systemic opposition parties could alter the final tally without threatening overall control. Upcoming campaign milestones, including final list approvals and any adjustments tied to economic or foreign-policy developments, remain the main variables that could widen the range.

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.

If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volume
$32,435
End Date
Sep 20, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 7, 2026, 5:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.United Russia enters the September 2026 State Duma election holding a commanding position after its 2021 result of 324 seats, backed by administrative resources, electronic primaries, and a candidate list led by Dmitry Medvedev that incorporates figures from the “special military operation.” Recent regional legislative votes in 2025 showed the party improving its performance in most areas through mobilization and limited opposition space. Polling trends place its support in the mid-30s to low-40s percent range across major survey organizations, sufficient under the mixed electoral system for a large majority but leaving room for variation in single-member districts and turnout. Trader odds cluster tightly between the 325–339 and 340–354 seat bands because small shifts in proportional results, district outcomes, or the performance of systemic opposition parties could alter the final tally without threatening overall control. Upcoming campaign milestones, including final list approvals and any adjustments tied to economic or foreign-policy developments, remain the main variables that could widen the range.

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.

If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volume
$32,435
End Date
Sep 20, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 7, 2026, 5:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "340–354" at 30%, followed by "325–339" at 27%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 30¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 30% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?" has generated $32.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 7, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?" is "340–354" at 30%, meaning the market assigns a 30% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "325–339" at 27%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.