Recent MRP polls from Electoral Calculus and YouGov, conducted in late April 2026, project Reform UK to secure the most council seats across 136 English councils up for election on May 7, with vote shares leading at 24-30% nationally amid Labour's anticipated historic losses—potentially half to three-quarters of their councillors—and Conservative fragmentation. Ipsos and More in Common surveys confirm Reform's six-point edge over both major parties, fueled by government unpopularity and protest voting on issues like immigration and local services. This trader consensus, reflecting skin-in-the-game projections of 1,300-2,200 net Reform gains, prices their party winner status near-certain; disruptions like scandals, tactical voting pacts, or unexpected turnout surges could still narrow the gap.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2026 United Kingdom Local Elections: Party Winner
2026 United Kingdom Local Elections: Party Winner
Reform 96.5%
Green 2.6%
Labour 1.1%
Conservative <1%
$138,180 Vol.
$138,180 Vol.
May 7, 2026
Reform
97%
Green
3%
Labour
1%
Conservative
<1%
Liberal Democrats
<1%
Reform 96.5%
Green 2.6%
Labour 1.1%
Conservative <1%
$138,180 Vol.
$138,180 Vol.
May 7, 2026
Reform
$52,831 Vol.
97%
Green
$36,567 Vol.
3%
Labour
$24,645 Vol.
1%
Conservative
$13,490 Vol.
<1%
Liberal Democrats
$10,646 Vol.
<1%
United Kingdom local elections are scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most council seats for the United Kingdom's metropolitan boroughs, London borough councils, unitary authorities, county councils, and district councils in the 2026 United Kingdom Local Elections.
A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.
Only elections for the United Kingdom’s metropolitan boroughs, London borough councils, unitary authorities, county councils, and district councils taking place on May 7, 2026, or rescheduled to within seven days thereafter, will be counted for this market. A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections.
In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of relevant council seat elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group.
Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 United Kingdom local elections aren’t known by April 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 United Kingdom local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the respective council government.Recent MRP polls from Electoral Calculus and YouGov, conducted in late April 2026, project Reform UK to secure the most council seats across 136 English councils up for election on May 7, with vote shares leading at 24-30% nationally amid Labour's anticipated historic losses—potentially half to three-quarters of their councillors—and Conservative fragmentation. Ipsos and More in Common surveys confirm Reform's six-point edge over both major parties, fueled by government unpopularity and protest voting on issues like immigration and local services. This trader consensus, reflecting skin-in-the-game projections of 1,300-2,200 net Reform gains, prices their party winner status near-certain; disruptions like scandals, tactical voting pacts, or unexpected turnout surges could still narrow the gap.
United Kingdom local elections are scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most council seats for the United Kingdom's metropolitan boroughs, London borough councils, unitary authorities, county councils, and district councils in the 2026 United Kingdom Local Elections.
A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.
Only elections for the United Kingdom’s metropolitan boroughs, London borough councils, unitary authorities, county councils, and district councils taking place on May 7, 2026, or rescheduled to within seven days thereafter, will be counted for this market. A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections.
In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of relevant council seat elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group.
Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 United Kingdom local elections aren’t known by April 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 United Kingdom local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the respective council government.
This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most council seats for the United Kingdom's metropolitan boroughs, London borough councils, unitary authorities, county councils, and district councils in the 2026 United Kingdom Local Elections.
A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.
Only elections for the United Kingdom’s metropolitan boroughs, London borough councils, unitary authorities, county councils, and district councils taking place on May 7, 2026, or rescheduled to within seven days thereafter, will be counted for this market. A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections.
In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of relevant council seat elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group.
Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 United Kingdom local elections aren’t known by April 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 United Kingdom local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the respective council government.
Market Opened: Apr 14, 2026, 5:36 PM ET
Volume
$138,180End Date
May 7, 2026Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...United Kingdom local elections are scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most council seats for the United Kingdom's metropolitan boroughs, London borough councils, unitary authorities, county councils, and district councils in the 2026 United Kingdom Local Elections.
A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.
Only elections for the United Kingdom’s metropolitan boroughs, London borough councils, unitary authorities, county councils, and district councils taking place on May 7, 2026, or rescheduled to within seven days thereafter, will be counted for this market. A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections.
In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of relevant council seat elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group.
Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 United Kingdom local elections aren’t known by April 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 United Kingdom local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the respective council government.Recent MRP polls from Electoral Calculus and YouGov, conducted in late April 2026, project Reform UK to secure the most council seats across 136 English councils up for election on May 7, with vote shares leading at 24-30% nationally amid Labour's anticipated historic losses—potentially half to three-quarters of their councillors—and Conservative fragmentation. Ipsos and More in Common surveys confirm Reform's six-point edge over both major parties, fueled by government unpopularity and protest voting on issues like immigration and local services. This trader consensus, reflecting skin-in-the-game projections of 1,300-2,200 net Reform gains, prices their party winner status near-certain; disruptions like scandals, tactical voting pacts, or unexpected turnout surges could still narrow the gap.
United Kingdom local elections are scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most council seats for the United Kingdom's metropolitan boroughs, London borough councils, unitary authorities, county councils, and district councils in the 2026 United Kingdom Local Elections.
A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.
Only elections for the United Kingdom’s metropolitan boroughs, London borough councils, unitary authorities, county councils, and district councils taking place on May 7, 2026, or rescheduled to within seven days thereafter, will be counted for this market. A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections.
In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of relevant council seat elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group.
Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 United Kingdom local elections aren’t known by April 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 United Kingdom local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the respective council government.
This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most council seats for the United Kingdom's metropolitan boroughs, London borough councils, unitary authorities, county councils, and district councils in the 2026 United Kingdom Local Elections.
A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.
Only elections for the United Kingdom’s metropolitan boroughs, London borough councils, unitary authorities, county councils, and district councils taking place on May 7, 2026, or rescheduled to within seven days thereafter, will be counted for this market. A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections.
In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of relevant council seat elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group.
Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 United Kingdom local elections aren’t known by April 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 United Kingdom local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the respective council government.
Volume
$138,180End Date
May 7, 2026Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent MRP polls from Electoral Calculus and YouGov, conducted in late April 2026, project Reform UK to secure the most council seats across 136 English councils up for election on May 7, with vote shares leading at 24-30% nationally amid Labour's anticipated historic losses—potentially half to three-quarters of their councillors—and Conservative fragmentation. Ipsos and More in Common surveys confirm Reform's six-point edge over both major parties, fueled by government unpopularity and protest voting on issues like immigration and local services. This trader consensus, reflecting skin-in-the-game projections of 1,300-2,200 net Reform gains, prices their party winner status near-certain; disruptions like scandals, tactical voting pacts, or unexpected turnout surges could still narrow the gap.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
Will the Labour Party win at least 300 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
97%
Will the Conservative Party win at least 300 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
90%
Will the Green Party win at least 500 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
85%
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