Russia's authoritarian system under President Vladimir Putin features extensive security controls and elite loyalty mechanisms that have sustained power through prior challenges, including the 2023 Wagner mutiny. Recent European intelligence reports from early May 2026 highlighted tightened personal protections around Putin amid elite rivalries and Ukraine war pressures, yet most analysts assess these as isolated rumors without credible coup pathways. Traders price the "No" outcome at 90.5 percent because historical patterns show such regimes suppress internal dissent effectively, with no verified military or political fractures emerging in the past month to alter that baseline. Potential shifts could arise only from major battlefield reversals or unexpected elite defections before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
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Dec 31, 2026
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's authoritarian system under President Vladimir Putin features extensive security controls and elite loyalty mechanisms that have sustained power through prior challenges, including the 2023 Wagner mutiny. Recent European intelligence reports from early May 2026 highlighted tightened personal protections around Putin amid elite rivalries and Ukraine war pressures, yet most analysts assess these as isolated rumors without credible coup pathways. Traders price the "No" outcome at 90.5 percent because historical patterns show such regimes suppress internal dissent effectively, with no verified military or political fractures emerging in the past month to alter that baseline. Potential shifts could arise only from major battlefield reversals or unexpected elite defections before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Volume
$8,613End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's authoritarian system under President Vladimir Putin features extensive security controls and elite loyalty mechanisms that have sustained power through prior challenges, including the 2023 Wagner mutiny. Recent European intelligence reports from early May 2026 highlighted tightened personal protections around Putin amid elite rivalries and Ukraine war pressures, yet most analysts assess these as isolated rumors without credible coup pathways. Traders price the "No" outcome at 90.5 percent because historical patterns show such regimes suppress internal dissent effectively, with no verified military or political fractures emerging in the past month to alter that baseline. Potential shifts could arise only from major battlefield reversals or unexpected elite defections before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$8,613End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia's authoritarian system under President Vladimir Putin features extensive security controls and elite loyalty mechanisms that have sustained power through prior challenges, including the 2023 Wagner mutiny. Recent European intelligence reports from early May 2026 highlighted tightened personal protections around Putin amid elite rivalries and Ukraine war pressures, yet most analysts assess these as isolated rumors without credible coup pathways. Traders price the "No" outcome at 90.5 percent because historical patterns show such regimes suppress internal dissent effectively, with no verified military or political fractures emerging in the past month to alter that baseline. Potential shifts could arise only from major battlefield reversals or unexpected elite defections before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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