The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience following the 2026 leadership transition, protest crackdowns, and military engagements has reinforced trader expectations against a coup attempt by June 30. Security institutions, including the IRGC, have shown sustained cohesion with no verified high-level defections or organized challenges in recent weeks, while authorities continue to prioritize internal control amid economic strains and diplomatic talks. This stability aligns with historical patterns where rapid internal power shifts require broader fractures not currently evident. Late developments such as sudden elite splits, major negotiation breakdowns, or external shocks could theoretically alter the outlook, though such events remain improbable within the narrow window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$1,767,676 Vol.
$1,767,676 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sí
$1,767,676 Vol.
$1,767,676 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience following the 2026 leadership transition, protest crackdowns, and military engagements has reinforced trader expectations against a coup attempt by June 30. Security institutions, including the IRGC, have shown sustained cohesion with no verified high-level defections or organized challenges in recent weeks, while authorities continue to prioritize internal control amid economic strains and diplomatic talks. This stability aligns with historical patterns where rapid internal power shifts require broader fractures not currently evident. Late developments such as sudden elite splits, major negotiation breakdowns, or external shocks could theoretically alter the outlook, though such events remain improbable within the narrow window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volumen
$1,767,676Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience following the 2026 leadership transition, protest crackdowns, and military engagements has reinforced trader expectations against a coup attempt by June 30. Security institutions, including the IRGC, have shown sustained cohesion with no verified high-level defections or organized challenges in recent weeks, while authorities continue to prioritize internal control amid economic strains and diplomatic talks. This stability aligns with historical patterns where rapid internal power shifts require broader fractures not currently evident. Late developments such as sudden elite splits, major negotiation breakdowns, or external shocks could theoretically alter the outlook, though such events remain improbable within the narrow window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$1,767,677Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience following the 2026 leadership transition, protest crackdowns, and military engagements has reinforced trader expectations against a coup attempt by June 30. Security institutions, including the IRGC, have shown sustained cohesion with no verified high-level defections or organized challenges in recent weeks, while authorities continue to prioritize internal control amid economic strains and diplomatic talks. This stability aligns with historical patterns where rapid internal power shifts require broader fractures not currently evident. Late developments such as sudden elite splits, major negotiation breakdowns, or external shocks could theoretically alter the outlook, though such events remain improbable within the narrow window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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