Iran's security apparatus, led by the IRGC, has maintained firm control following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes earlier in 2026, executing individuals linked to a December 2025 unrest labeled a "coup attempt" and arresting over 4,000 on national security charges amid suppressed protests. Recent public rallies by leaders in Tehran project regime unity and resolve, with no verified reports of military dissent, elite defections, or factional plots in the past 30 days, anchoring trader consensus at 84.5% against a coup by June 30. While war strains persist, crackdowns have quashed domestic threats, though late-breaking diplomatic escalations or economic collapse could alter odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$654,916 Vol.
$654,916 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$654,916 Vol.
$654,916 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's security apparatus, led by the IRGC, has maintained firm control following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes earlier in 2026, executing individuals linked to a December 2025 unrest labeled a "coup attempt" and arresting over 4,000 on national security charges amid suppressed protests. Recent public rallies by leaders in Tehran project regime unity and resolve, with no verified reports of military dissent, elite defections, or factional plots in the past 30 days, anchoring trader consensus at 84.5% against a coup by June 30. While war strains persist, crackdowns have quashed domestic threats, though late-breaking diplomatic escalations or economic collapse could alter odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$654,916End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's security apparatus, led by the IRGC, has maintained firm control following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes earlier in 2026, executing individuals linked to a December 2025 unrest labeled a "coup attempt" and arresting over 4,000 on national security charges amid suppressed protests. Recent public rallies by leaders in Tehran project regime unity and resolve, with no verified reports of military dissent, elite defections, or factional plots in the past 30 days, anchoring trader consensus at 84.5% against a coup by June 30. While war strains persist, crackdowns have quashed domestic threats, though late-breaking diplomatic escalations or economic collapse could alter odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$655,541End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's security apparatus, led by the IRGC, has maintained firm control following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes earlier in 2026, executing individuals linked to a December 2025 unrest labeled a "coup attempt" and arresting over 4,000 on national security charges amid suppressed protests. Recent public rallies by leaders in Tehran project regime unity and resolve, with no verified reports of military dissent, elite defections, or factional plots in the past 30 days, anchoring trader consensus at 84.5% against a coup by June 30. While war strains persist, crackdowns have quashed domestic threats, though late-breaking diplomatic escalations or economic collapse could alter odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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