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Sports·Peace

Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay

icon for Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay
Sports·Peace

Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay

12% chance
Polymarket

$428,389 Vol.

12% chance
Polymarket

$428,389 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - Russia x Ukraine ceasefire - Ukraine agrees not to join NATO - Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdfTrader consensus heavily favors "No" at 88% implied probability on the Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay, reflecting stalled US-mediated negotiations and persistent frontline hostilities that mirror a grueling international playoff series with no end in sight. Recent developments, including abrupt endings to Geneva and Abu Dhabi talks in early 2026 without breakthroughs, maximalist positions from both sides, and Zelenskyy's openness to ceasefires lacking a firm timeline, underscore Russia's sustained "form" through ongoing advances and drone strikes, while Ukraine faces manpower constraints despite defensive resilience. Russia's tactical May 9 Victory Day truce proposal signals event-driven posturing rather than structural resolution, leaving slim upset potential for a deal amid deep territorial divides and absent concessions, akin to a dominant side holding home advantage in extra time.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:

- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
- Ukraine agrees not to join NATO
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdf
Volume
$428,389
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 24, 2025, 12:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - Russia x Ukraine ceasefire - Ukraine agrees not to join NATO - Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdf
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - Russia x Ukraine ceasefire - Ukraine agrees not to join NATO - Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdfTrader consensus heavily favors "No" at 88% implied probability on the Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay, reflecting stalled US-mediated negotiations and persistent frontline hostilities that mirror a grueling international playoff series with no end in sight. Recent developments, including abrupt endings to Geneva and Abu Dhabi talks in early 2026 without breakthroughs, maximalist positions from both sides, and Zelenskyy's openness to ceasefires lacking a firm timeline, underscore Russia's sustained "form" through ongoing advances and drone strikes, while Ukraine faces manpower constraints despite defensive resilience. Russia's tactical May 9 Victory Day truce proposal signals event-driven posturing rather than structural resolution, leaving slim upset potential for a deal amid deep territorial divides and absent concessions, akin to a dominant side holding home advantage in extra time.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:

- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
- Ukraine agrees not to join NATO
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdf
Volume
$428,389
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 24, 2025, 12:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - Russia x Ukraine ceasefire - Ukraine agrees not to join NATO - Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdf

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Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 12% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 12¢, the market collectively assigns a 12% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay" has generated $428.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 24, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay" is 12% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 12% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.