Trader consensus prices a coup attempt in Ukraine by June 30 at just 6%, reflecting the absence of any verified plots, official announcements, or internal fractures amid ongoing martial law that suspends elections and centralizes authority under President Zelenskyy. Recent cabinet reshuffles in January neutralized political rivals amid corruption probes, while April warnings of spring-summer diplomatic and military pressures from Zelenskiy have centered attention on the Russian frontline offensives and mobilization tensions, including viral incidents of chaotic conscription in Kyiv and isolated terrorist attacks. No credible indicators of coup plotting have emerged in the past 30 days, underscoring structural barriers like unified wartime command and external invasion focus that maintain stability despite domestic strains.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
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Jun 30, 2026
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Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a coup attempt in Ukraine by June 30 at just 6%, reflecting the absence of any verified plots, official announcements, or internal fractures amid ongoing martial law that suspends elections and centralizes authority under President Zelenskyy. Recent cabinet reshuffles in January neutralized political rivals amid corruption probes, while April warnings of spring-summer diplomatic and military pressures from Zelenskiy have centered attention on the Russian frontline offensives and mobilization tensions, including viral incidents of chaotic conscription in Kyiv and isolated terrorist attacks. No credible indicators of coup plotting have emerged in the past 30 days, underscoring structural barriers like unified wartime command and external invasion focus that maintain stability despite domestic strains.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Dec 29, 2025, 4:46 PM ET
Volume
$9,190End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 4:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a coup attempt in Ukraine by June 30 at just 6%, reflecting the absence of any verified plots, official announcements, or internal fractures amid ongoing martial law that suspends elections and centralizes authority under President Zelenskyy. Recent cabinet reshuffles in January neutralized political rivals amid corruption probes, while April warnings of spring-summer diplomatic and military pressures from Zelenskiy have centered attention on the Russian frontline offensives and mobilization tensions, including viral incidents of chaotic conscription in Kyiv and isolated terrorist attacks. No credible indicators of coup plotting have emerged in the past 30 days, underscoring structural barriers like unified wartime command and external invasion focus that maintain stability despite domestic strains.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$9,190End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 4:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a coup attempt in Ukraine by June 30 at just 6%, reflecting the absence of any verified plots, official announcements, or internal fractures amid ongoing martial law that suspends elections and centralizes authority under President Zelenskyy. Recent cabinet reshuffles in January neutralized political rivals amid corruption probes, while April warnings of spring-summer diplomatic and military pressures from Zelenskiy have centered attention on the Russian frontline offensives and mobilization tensions, including viral incidents of chaotic conscription in Kyiv and isolated terrorist attacks. No credible indicators of coup plotting have emerged in the past 30 days, underscoring structural barriers like unified wartime command and external invasion focus that maintain stability despite domestic strains.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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