**US policy toward Cuba centers on sustained maximum pressure through expanded sanctions and an effective oil supply restriction, sharply limiting near-term prospects for a broad economic agreement.** Since early 2025, the Trump administration reinstated Cuba’s State Sponsor of Terrorism designation, reactivated restricted-entity lists, and enforced tighter travel and remittance rules. In January 2026, an executive order declared a national emergency and imposed tariffs on third countries supplying oil to Cuba, halting prior Venezuelan shipments and contributing to severe fuel shortages and blackouts on the island. A May 2026 follow-on order authorized secondary sanctions targeting Cuban energy, defense, mining, financial, and security sectors, with initial designations against military-linked entities. President Trump has repeatedly urged Cuban leaders to “make a deal before it’s too late,” with reports of high-level contacts, yet no framework for normalized trade, investment, or embargo relief has emerged. Cuba has rejected core US demands while offering limited technical cooperation. Any economic accord would require verifiable Cuban reforms on human rights, property claims, and governance—conditions that remain unmet amid the ongoing pressure campaign and Cuba’s economic distress.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUS x Cuba economic deal by...?
US x Cuba economic deal by...?
$297,062 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
June 30
10%
July 31
41%
December 31
56%
$297,062 Vol.
June 30
$159,315 Vol.
10%
July 31
$1,249 Vol.
41%
December 31
$500 Vol.
56%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over trade, tariffs, sanctions, or the US embargo on Cuba, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Cuba by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying agreement may include, but is not limited to, US sanctions relief for Cuba or other easing of U.S. restrictions on Cuban imports, exports, shipping, payments, energy trade, or other trade-related activity.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Cuba as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
Only deals which are officially announced by both parties or confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and Cuba, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.**US policy toward Cuba centers on sustained maximum pressure through expanded sanctions and an effective oil supply restriction, sharply limiting near-term prospects for a broad economic agreement.** Since early 2025, the Trump administration reinstated Cuba’s State Sponsor of Terrorism designation, reactivated restricted-entity lists, and enforced tighter travel and remittance rules. In January 2026, an executive order declared a national emergency and imposed tariffs on third countries supplying oil to Cuba, halting prior Venezuelan shipments and contributing to severe fuel shortages and blackouts on the island. A May 2026 follow-on order authorized secondary sanctions targeting Cuban energy, defense, mining, financial, and security sectors, with initial designations against military-linked entities. President Trump has repeatedly urged Cuban leaders to “make a deal before it’s too late,” with reports of high-level contacts, yet no framework for normalized trade, investment, or embargo relief has emerged. Cuba has rejected core US demands while offering limited technical cooperation. Any economic accord would require verifiable Cuban reforms on human rights, property claims, and governance—conditions that remain unmet amid the ongoing pressure campaign and Cuba’s economic distress.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over trade, tariffs, sanctions, or the US embargo on Cuba, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Cuba by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying agreement may include, but is not limited to, US sanctions relief for Cuba or other easing of U.S. restrictions on Cuban imports, exports, shipping, payments, energy trade, or other trade-related activity.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Cuba as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
Only deals which are officially announced by both parties or confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and Cuba, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
A qualifying agreement may include, but is not limited to, US sanctions relief for Cuba or other easing of U.S. restrictions on Cuban imports, exports, shipping, payments, energy trade, or other trade-related activity.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Cuba as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
Only deals which are officially announced by both parties or confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and Cuba, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Market Opened: Mar 13, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
Volume
$297,062End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 13, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over trade, tariffs, sanctions, or the US embargo on Cuba, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Cuba by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying agreement may include, but is not limited to, US sanctions relief for Cuba or other easing of U.S. restrictions on Cuban imports, exports, shipping, payments, energy trade, or other trade-related activity.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Cuba as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
Only deals which are officially announced by both parties or confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and Cuba, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.**US policy toward Cuba centers on sustained maximum pressure through expanded sanctions and an effective oil supply restriction, sharply limiting near-term prospects for a broad economic agreement.** Since early 2025, the Trump administration reinstated Cuba’s State Sponsor of Terrorism designation, reactivated restricted-entity lists, and enforced tighter travel and remittance rules. In January 2026, an executive order declared a national emergency and imposed tariffs on third countries supplying oil to Cuba, halting prior Venezuelan shipments and contributing to severe fuel shortages and blackouts on the island. A May 2026 follow-on order authorized secondary sanctions targeting Cuban energy, defense, mining, financial, and security sectors, with initial designations against military-linked entities. President Trump has repeatedly urged Cuban leaders to “make a deal before it’s too late,” with reports of high-level contacts, yet no framework for normalized trade, investment, or embargo relief has emerged. Cuba has rejected core US demands while offering limited technical cooperation. Any economic accord would require verifiable Cuban reforms on human rights, property claims, and governance—conditions that remain unmet amid the ongoing pressure campaign and Cuba’s economic distress.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over trade, tariffs, sanctions, or the US embargo on Cuba, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Cuba by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying agreement may include, but is not limited to, US sanctions relief for Cuba or other easing of U.S. restrictions on Cuban imports, exports, shipping, payments, energy trade, or other trade-related activity.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Cuba as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
Only deals which are officially announced by both parties or confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and Cuba, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
A qualifying agreement may include, but is not limited to, US sanctions relief for Cuba or other easing of U.S. restrictions on Cuban imports, exports, shipping, payments, energy trade, or other trade-related activity.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Cuba as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
Only deals which are officially announced by both parties or confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and Cuba, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$297,062End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 13, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**US policy toward Cuba centers on sustained maximum pressure through expanded sanctions and an effective oil supply restriction, sharply limiting near-term prospects for a broad economic agreement.** Since early 2025, the Trump administration reinstated Cuba’s State Sponsor of Terrorism designation, reactivated restricted-entity lists, and enforced tighter travel and remittance rules. In January 2026, an executive order declared a national emergency and imposed tariffs on third countries supplying oil to Cuba, halting prior Venezuelan shipments and contributing to severe fuel shortages and blackouts on the island. A May 2026 follow-on order authorized secondary sanctions targeting Cuban energy, defense, mining, financial, and security sectors, with initial designations against military-linked entities. President Trump has repeatedly urged Cuban leaders to “make a deal before it’s too late,” with reports of high-level contacts, yet no framework for normalized trade, investment, or embargo relief has emerged. Cuba has rejected core US demands while offering limited technical cooperation. Any economic accord would require verifiable Cuban reforms on human rights, property claims, and governance—conditions that remain unmet amid the ongoing pressure campaign and Cuba’s economic distress.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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