Putin’s entrenched control over Russia’s political system and security apparatus underpins the 98.8% trader consensus against his removal by June 30. Constitutional amendments reset term limits, allowing him to seek reelection in 2030 and potentially serve until 2036, while recent public engagements—including SPIEF addresses, military briefings, and responses to Ukrainian strikes—show continued active leadership without signs of internal challenge or health issues. Economic pressures from the Ukraine conflict exist but have not translated into elite fractures or resignation signals. The only realistic near-term shifts would involve an abrupt, unforeseen event such as a sudden medical crisis or successful coup, both viewed by markets as highly improbable given institutional safeguards and his personal security apparatus.