Trader consensus prices "No" at 93.1% for a China coup attempt before 2027, reflecting Xi Jinping's unchallenged authority and the Chinese Communist Party's tight institutional control over the military and security apparatus. Rumors of a failed plot involving top PLA generals Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli on January 18, 2026, circulated widely but collapsed amid official disclosures framing their January purge—on charges of corruption and leaking nuclear secrets to the US—as part of Xi's ongoing anti-corruption campaign, with no leadership disruption or escalation. No verifiable instability has emerged in the past three months, underscoring preemptive purges quashing dissent; late-breaking scandals, economic shocks, or elite fractures could shift odds, though historical precedents favor continuity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$123,071 Vol.
$123,071 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$123,071 Vol.
$123,071 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 93.1% for a China coup attempt before 2027, reflecting Xi Jinping's unchallenged authority and the Chinese Communist Party's tight institutional control over the military and security apparatus. Rumors of a failed plot involving top PLA generals Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli on January 18, 2026, circulated widely but collapsed amid official disclosures framing their January purge—on charges of corruption and leaking nuclear secrets to the US—as part of Xi's ongoing anti-corruption campaign, with no leadership disruption or escalation. No verifiable instability has emerged in the past three months, underscoring preemptive purges quashing dissent; late-breaking scandals, economic shocks, or elite fractures could shift odds, though historical precedents favor continuity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$123,071End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 93.1% for a China coup attempt before 2027, reflecting Xi Jinping's unchallenged authority and the Chinese Communist Party's tight institutional control over the military and security apparatus. Rumors of a failed plot involving top PLA generals Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli on January 18, 2026, circulated widely but collapsed amid official disclosures framing their January purge—on charges of corruption and leaking nuclear secrets to the US—as part of Xi's ongoing anti-corruption campaign, with no leadership disruption or escalation. No verifiable instability has emerged in the past three months, underscoring preemptive purges quashing dissent; late-breaking scandals, economic shocks, or elite fractures could shift odds, though historical precedents favor continuity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$123,071End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 93.1% for a China coup attempt before 2027, reflecting Xi Jinping's unchallenged authority and the Chinese Communist Party's tight institutional control over the military and security apparatus. Rumors of a failed plot involving top PLA generals Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli on January 18, 2026, circulated widely but collapsed amid official disclosures framing their January purge—on charges of corruption and leaking nuclear secrets to the US—as part of Xi's ongoing anti-corruption campaign, with no leadership disruption or escalation. No verifiable instability has emerged in the past three months, underscoring preemptive purges quashing dissent; late-breaking scandals, economic shocks, or elite fractures could shift odds, though historical precedents favor continuity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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