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Economy·Interest Rates

Bank of Russia decision in July?

icon for Bank of Russia decision in July?
Economy·Interest Rates

Bank of Russia decision in July?

Jun 19

Jul 24

Jun 19

Jul 24

Decrease 52%

No Change 50%

Increase 7%

Polymarket
NEW

Decrease 52%

No Change 50%

Increase 7%

Polymarket
NEW

Decrease

$454 Vol.

45%

No Change

$38 Vol.

50%

Increase

$10 Vol.

7%

This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s July meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its July 24, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13 This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their July 24, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a razor-thin 50% implied probability for no change in the Bank of Russia's key rate at its July 1, 2026, meeting—barely ahead of 43% for a decrease—following the central bank's April 24 cut of 50 basis points to 14.5%, its eighth straight reduction amid moderating domestic demand. Inflation stood at 5.7% annualized as of April 20, with household expectations easing to 12.9%, but upside risks persist from elevated wage growth and a revised higher oil price forecast, tilting the baseline scenario toward an average 14-14.5% rate through 2026. A mere 7% sees an increase, given the disinflation trajectory. Key swing factors include May 7 and June 19 data releases on inflation and labor markets, which could solidify the cutting cycle's end or prompt further easing.

This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s July meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its July 24, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13

This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their July 24, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$502
End Date
Jul 24, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 24, 2026, 5:46 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s July meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its July 24, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13 This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their July 24, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s July meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its July 24, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13 This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their July 24, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a razor-thin 50% implied probability for no change in the Bank of Russia's key rate at its July 1, 2026, meeting—barely ahead of 43% for a decrease—following the central bank's April 24 cut of 50 basis points to 14.5%, its eighth straight reduction amid moderating domestic demand. Inflation stood at 5.7% annualized as of April 20, with household expectations easing to 12.9%, but upside risks persist from elevated wage growth and a revised higher oil price forecast, tilting the baseline scenario toward an average 14-14.5% rate through 2026. A mere 7% sees an increase, given the disinflation trajectory. Key swing factors include May 7 and June 19 data releases on inflation and labor markets, which could solidify the cutting cycle's end or prompt further easing.

This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s July meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its July 24, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13

This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their July 24, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$502
End Date
Jul 24, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 24, 2026, 5:46 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s July meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its July 24, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13 This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their July 24, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Bank of Russia decision in July?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "No Change" at 50%, followed by "Decrease" at 45%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 50¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Bank of Russia decision in July?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 24, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Bank of Russia decision in July?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Bank of Russia decision in July?" is "No Change" at 50%, meaning the market assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Decrease" at 45%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Bank of Russia decision in July?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.