Persistent disinflation and moderating economic momentum continue to anchor trader expectations for a Bank of Russia key rate cut at the July 24 meeting. April’s 50-basis-point reduction to 14.50% reflected easing underlying price pressures near 4–5% annualized and Q1 growth slowdown, with annual inflation at 5.7%. The central bank’s baseline projects a 2026 average rate of 14.0–14.5% alongside inflation of 4.5–5.5%, though it flagged pro-inflationary risks and external uncertainties that could limit further easing. Market-implied odds of 80.5% for a July decrease embed the view that recent data sustain the cautious cutting path, while the 15.5% no-change probability accounts for the board’s signal that the cycle may near its end ahead of the June 19 decision.