Early-month heavy rainfall episodes have already delivered nearly 200 mm through mid-June 2026, positioning the 500 mm+ outcome as the clear market leader at 61.5% implied probability despite the Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook for normal to below-normal June–August totals. Southwest monsoon flow, which typically drives June’s average of roughly 450 mm, combined with the onset of typhoon season and potential convective activity, supports the elevated totals traders favor. Model guidance and recent accumulation patterns outweigh the longer-range forecast, with remaining weeks offering scope for additional monsoon surges or tropical systems to reinforce or moderate the final tally.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPrecipitation in Hong Kong in June?
Precipitation in Hong Kong in June?
500mm+ 62%
475-500mm 10%
375-400mm 8%
400-425mm 6%
NEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2026
<350mm
3%
350-375mm
9%
375-400mm
8%
400-425mm
6%
425-450mm
6%
450-475mm
5%
475-500mm
10%
500mm+
62%
500mm+ 62%
475-500mm 10%
375-400mm 8%
400-425mm 6%
NEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2026
<350mm
$449 Vol.
3%
350-375mm
$505 Vol.
9%
375-400mm
$456 Vol.
8%
400-425mm
$277 Vol.
6%
425-450mm
$315 Vol.
6%
450-475mm
$373 Vol.
5%
475-500mm
$471 Vol.
10%
500mm+
$758 Vol.
62%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between June 1 and June 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in June 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by September 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Early-month heavy rainfall episodes have already delivered nearly 200 mm through mid-June 2026, positioning the 500 mm+ outcome as the clear market leader at 61.5% implied probability despite the Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook for normal to below-normal June–August totals. Southwest monsoon flow, which typically drives June’s average of roughly 450 mm, combined with the onset of typhoon season and potential convective activity, supports the elevated totals traders favor. Model guidance and recent accumulation patterns outweigh the longer-range forecast, with remaining weeks offering scope for additional monsoon surges or tropical systems to reinforce or moderate the final tally.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between June 1 and June 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in June 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by September 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in June 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by September 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 27, 2026, 4:07 PM ET
Volume
$3,605End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
May 27, 2026, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between June 1 and June 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in June 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by September 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Early-month heavy rainfall episodes have already delivered nearly 200 mm through mid-June 2026, positioning the 500 mm+ outcome as the clear market leader at 61.5% implied probability despite the Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook for normal to below-normal June–August totals. Southwest monsoon flow, which typically drives June’s average of roughly 450 mm, combined with the onset of typhoon season and potential convective activity, supports the elevated totals traders favor. Model guidance and recent accumulation patterns outweigh the longer-range forecast, with remaining weeks offering scope for additional monsoon surges or tropical systems to reinforce or moderate the final tally.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between June 1 and June 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in June 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by September 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in June 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by September 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$3,605End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
May 27, 2026, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Early-month heavy rainfall episodes have already delivered nearly 200 mm through mid-June 2026, positioning the 500 mm+ outcome as the clear market leader at 61.5% implied probability despite the Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook for normal to below-normal June–August totals. Southwest monsoon flow, which typically drives June’s average of roughly 450 mm, combined with the onset of typhoon season and potential convective activity, supports the elevated totals traders favor. Model guidance and recent accumulation patterns outweigh the longer-range forecast, with remaining weeks offering scope for additional monsoon surges or tropical systems to reinforce or moderate the final tally.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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