Traders have converged on 31°C as the near-certain outcome for Shenzhen’s highest temperature on June 14 because official station observations and short-range model consensus, including guidance aligned with historical June climatology, show a daily maximum reaching exactly that threshold under typical early-summer monsoon conditions. High humidity, scattered convection, and moderate southerly flow have limited stronger heating, while overnight lows near 25–26°C and cloud cover prevented any upward deviation. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects verified measurements rather than forecasts. Only an unexpected clear-sky ridge, revised station data, or instrument anomaly could realistically shift resolution, though such changes remain improbable given consistent regional reports.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shenzhen on June 14?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on June 14?
31°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$103,169 Vol.
$103,169 Vol.
Jun 14, 2026
24°C or below
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
Yes
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C or higher
No
31°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$103,169 Vol.
$103,169 Vol.
Jun 14, 2026
24°C or below
$440 Vol.
No
25°C
$1,414 Vol.
No
26°C
$8,546 Vol.
No
27°C
$16,573 Vol.
No
28°C
$12,659 Vol.
No
29°C
$14,224 Vol.
No
30°C
$16,271 Vol.
No
31°C
$11,685 Vol.
Yes
32°C
$7,984 Vol.
No
33°C
$6,559 Vol.
No
34°C or higher
$6,816 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders have converged on 31°C as the near-certain outcome for Shenzhen’s highest temperature on June 14 because official station observations and short-range model consensus, including guidance aligned with historical June climatology, show a daily maximum reaching exactly that threshold under typical early-summer monsoon conditions. High humidity, scattered convection, and moderate southerly flow have limited stronger heating, while overnight lows near 25–26°C and cloud cover prevented any upward deviation. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects verified measurements rather than forecasts. Only an unexpected clear-sky ridge, revised station data, or instrument anomaly could realistically shift resolution, though such changes remain improbable given consistent regional reports.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 12, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$103,169End Date
Jun 14, 2026Market Opened
Jun 12, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders have converged on 31°C as the near-certain outcome for Shenzhen’s highest temperature on June 14 because official station observations and short-range model consensus, including guidance aligned with historical June climatology, show a daily maximum reaching exactly that threshold under typical early-summer monsoon conditions. High humidity, scattered convection, and moderate southerly flow have limited stronger heating, while overnight lows near 25–26°C and cloud cover prevented any upward deviation. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects verified measurements rather than forecasts. Only an unexpected clear-sky ridge, revised station data, or instrument anomaly could realistically shift resolution, though such changes remain improbable given consistent regional reports.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$103,169End Date
Jun 14, 2026Market Opened
Jun 12, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Traders have converged on 31°C as the near-certain outcome for Shenzhen’s highest temperature on June 14 because official station observations and short-range model consensus, including guidance aligned with historical June climatology, show a daily maximum reaching exactly that threshold under typical early-summer monsoon conditions. High humidity, scattered convection, and moderate southerly flow have limited stronger heating, while overnight lows near 25–26°C and cloud cover prevented any upward deviation. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects verified measurements rather than forecasts. Only an unexpected clear-sky ridge, revised station data, or instrument anomaly could realistically shift resolution, though such changes remain improbable given consistent regional reports.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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