**Trader consensus favors above-average June rainfall in Hong Kong, with 500 mm+ leading at 59.5% implied probability.** June climatology features the southwest monsoon and peak seasonal rainfall, averaging 450–490 mm at the Hong Kong Observatory, driven by frequent thunderstorms and the early typhoon season. Heavy early-month episodes, including over 100 mm in a single day around June 8, have already contributed substantially toward monthly totals. The Hong Kong Observatory’s late-May seasonal outlook called for normal to below-normal rainfall through August amid above-normal temperatures, yet ongoing model runs and active monsoon patterns support continued wet conditions through late June. Key resolution hinges on whether additional tropical systems or persistent southwesterly flow push accumulations past the 500 mm threshold before month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPrecipitation in Hong Kong in June?
Precipitation in Hong Kong in June?
500mm+ 69%
475-500mm 13%
400-425mm 9%
375-400mm 7%
NEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2026
<350mm
4%
350-375mm
5%
375-400mm
7%
400-425mm
9%
425-450mm
5%
450-475mm
5%
475-500mm
18%
500mm+
61%
500mm+ 69%
475-500mm 13%
400-425mm 9%
375-400mm 7%
NEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2026
<350mm
$486 Vol.
4%
350-375mm
$505 Vol.
5%
375-400mm
$468 Vol.
7%
400-425mm
$279 Vol.
9%
425-450mm
$322 Vol.
5%
450-475mm
$383 Vol.
5%
475-500mm
$484 Vol.
18%
500mm+
$902 Vol.
61%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between June 1 and June 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in June 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by September 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus favors above-average June rainfall in Hong Kong, with 500 mm+ leading at 59.5% implied probability.** June climatology features the southwest monsoon and peak seasonal rainfall, averaging 450–490 mm at the Hong Kong Observatory, driven by frequent thunderstorms and the early typhoon season. Heavy early-month episodes, including over 100 mm in a single day around June 8, have already contributed substantially toward monthly totals. The Hong Kong Observatory’s late-May seasonal outlook called for normal to below-normal rainfall through August amid above-normal temperatures, yet ongoing model runs and active monsoon patterns support continued wet conditions through late June. Key resolution hinges on whether additional tropical systems or persistent southwesterly flow push accumulations past the 500 mm threshold before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between June 1 and June 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in June 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by September 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in June 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by September 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 27, 2026, 4:07 PM ET
Volume
$3,830End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
May 27, 2026, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between June 1 and June 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in June 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by September 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus favors above-average June rainfall in Hong Kong, with 500 mm+ leading at 59.5% implied probability.** June climatology features the southwest monsoon and peak seasonal rainfall, averaging 450–490 mm at the Hong Kong Observatory, driven by frequent thunderstorms and the early typhoon season. Heavy early-month episodes, including over 100 mm in a single day around June 8, have already contributed substantially toward monthly totals. The Hong Kong Observatory’s late-May seasonal outlook called for normal to below-normal rainfall through August amid above-normal temperatures, yet ongoing model runs and active monsoon patterns support continued wet conditions through late June. Key resolution hinges on whether additional tropical systems or persistent southwesterly flow push accumulations past the 500 mm threshold before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between June 1 and June 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in June 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by September 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in June 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by September 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$3,830End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
May 27, 2026, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus favors above-average June rainfall in Hong Kong, with 500 mm+ leading at 59.5% implied probability.** June climatology features the southwest monsoon and peak seasonal rainfall, averaging 450–490 mm at the Hong Kong Observatory, driven by frequent thunderstorms and the early typhoon season. Heavy early-month episodes, including over 100 mm in a single day around June 8, have already contributed substantially toward monthly totals. The Hong Kong Observatory’s late-May seasonal outlook called for normal to below-normal rainfall through August amid above-normal temperatures, yet ongoing model runs and active monsoon patterns support continued wet conditions through late June. Key resolution hinges on whether additional tropical systems or persistent southwesterly flow push accumulations past the 500 mm threshold before month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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