Trader consensus prices an 86.5% chance of no US-Iran diplomatic meeting before May 11, driven by the recent stalling of indirect peace talks mediated by Pakistan. President Trump scrapped plans last week to send envoys including Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Islamabad for negotiations over ceasefire terms and Strait of Hormuz access, citing insufficient progress. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi instead met Russian President Putin to solidify ties, while Tehran explicitly denied any US meeting is planned. Earlier April rounds in Oman and Pakistan yielded no breakthroughs amid the ongoing 2026 conflict, leaving no scheduled engagements and highlighting significant barriers to near-term diplomacy.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNext US x Iran diplomatic meeting on...?
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting on...?
No Meeting before May 11 87%
May 10 3.1%
May 5 2.4%
May 9 2.0%
$1,445,116 Vol.
$1,445,116 Vol.
May 10, 2026
April 30
<1%
May 1
<1%
May 2
1%
May 3
1%
May 4
1%
May 5
2%
May 6
1%
May 7
1%
May 8
1%
May 9
2%
May 10
3%
No Meeting before May 11
87%
No Meeting before May 11 87%
May 10 3.1%
May 5 2.4%
May 9 2.0%
$1,445,116 Vol.
$1,445,116 Vol.
May 10, 2026
April 30
$87,228 Vol.
<1%
May 1
$36,801 Vol.
<1%
May 2
$32,399 Vol.
1%
May 3
$27,403 Vol.
1%
May 4
$34,435 Vol.
1%
May 5
$32,941 Vol.
2%
May 6
$30,284 Vol.
1%
May 7
$29,501 Vol.
1%
May 8
$25,769 Vol.
1%
May 9
$29,973 Vol.
2%
May 10
$46,389 Vol.
3%
No Meeting before May 11
$462,397 Vol.
87%
This market will resolve according to the listed date (Pakistan Standard Time) on which the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran occurs.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If no qualifying meeting occurs by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM Pakistan Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No Meeting before May 11”.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices an 86.5% chance of no US-Iran diplomatic meeting before May 11, driven by the recent stalling of indirect peace talks mediated by Pakistan. President Trump scrapped plans last week to send envoys including Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Islamabad for negotiations over ceasefire terms and Strait of Hormuz access, citing insufficient progress. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi instead met Russian President Putin to solidify ties, while Tehran explicitly denied any US meeting is planned. Earlier April rounds in Oman and Pakistan yielded no breakthroughs amid the ongoing 2026 conflict, leaving no scheduled engagements and highlighting significant barriers to near-term diplomacy.
This market will resolve according to the listed date (Pakistan Standard Time) on which the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran occurs.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If no qualifying meeting occurs by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM Pakistan Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No Meeting before May 11”.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If no qualifying meeting occurs by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM Pakistan Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No Meeting before May 11”.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Apr 21, 2026, 7:19 PM ET
Volume
$1,445,116End Date
May 10, 2026Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 7:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the listed date (Pakistan Standard Time) on which the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran occurs.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If no qualifying meeting occurs by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM Pakistan Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No Meeting before May 11”.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices an 86.5% chance of no US-Iran diplomatic meeting before May 11, driven by the recent stalling of indirect peace talks mediated by Pakistan. President Trump scrapped plans last week to send envoys including Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Islamabad for negotiations over ceasefire terms and Strait of Hormuz access, citing insufficient progress. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi instead met Russian President Putin to solidify ties, while Tehran explicitly denied any US meeting is planned. Earlier April rounds in Oman and Pakistan yielded no breakthroughs amid the ongoing 2026 conflict, leaving no scheduled engagements and highlighting significant barriers to near-term diplomacy.
This market will resolve according to the listed date (Pakistan Standard Time) on which the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran occurs.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If no qualifying meeting occurs by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM Pakistan Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No Meeting before May 11”.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If no qualifying meeting occurs by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM Pakistan Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No Meeting before May 11”.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,445,116End Date
May 10, 2026Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 7:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus prices an 86.5% chance of no US-Iran diplomatic meeting before May 11, driven by the recent stalling of indirect peace talks mediated by Pakistan. President Trump scrapped plans last week to send envoys including Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Islamabad for negotiations over ceasefire terms and Strait of Hormuz access, citing insufficient progress. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi instead met Russian President Putin to solidify ties, while Tehran explicitly denied any US meeting is planned. Earlier April rounds in Oman and Pakistan yielded no breakthroughs amid the ongoing 2026 conflict, leaving no scheduled engagements and highlighting significant barriers to near-term diplomacy.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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