Trader consensus prices no new UK Prime Minister in 2026 at 34.5%, reflecting Keir Starmer's resolve to endure amid Labour's polling slump and economic pressures, though upcoming May 7 local elections—previewed as potential record losses of over 2,000 council seats—pose high jeopardy for his leadership. Angela Rayner leads successors at 21.5% on deputy experience and union support, ahead of Andy Burnham (13.1%), whose Greater Manchester mayoral popularity and soft-left pact discussions with Rayner boost his appeal despite lacking a Commons seat, and Alistair Carns (12.6%), the ex-Royal Marine Armed Forces Minister drawing wildcard interest for military credentials and working-class roots. Heavy local defeats could trigger an orderly transition and leadership contest by party conference, consolidating factions behind a unifying contender ahead of 2029 polls.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo Next PM in 2026 35%
Angela Rayner 22%
Andy Burnham 13.1%
Al Carns 12.6%
$4,994,287 Vol.
$4,994,287 Vol.
No Next PM in 2026
35%
Angela Rayner
22%
Andy Burnham
13%
Al Carns
13%
Wes Streeting
8%
Shabana Mahmood
7%
Ed Miliband
5%
Nigel Farage
2%
Rachel Reeves
1%
Lucy Powell
1%
Yvette Cooper
1%
Rupert Lowe
<1%
David Lammy
<1%
Bridget Phillipson
<1%
Darren Jones
<1%
Kemi Badenoch
<1%
Ed Davey
<1%
Boris Johnson
<1%
Robert Jenrick
<1%
James Cleverly
<1%
No Next PM in 2026 35%
Angela Rayner 22%
Andy Burnham 13.1%
Al Carns 12.6%
$4,994,287 Vol.
$4,994,287 Vol.
No Next PM in 2026
35%
Angela Rayner
22%
Andy Burnham
13%
Al Carns
13%
Wes Streeting
8%
Shabana Mahmood
7%
Ed Miliband
5%
Nigel Farage
2%
Rachel Reeves
1%
Lucy Powell
1%
Yvette Cooper
1%
Rupert Lowe
<1%
David Lammy
<1%
Bridget Phillipson
<1%
Darren Jones
<1%
Kemi Badenoch
<1%
Ed Davey
<1%
Boris Johnson
<1%
Robert Jenrick
<1%
James Cleverly
<1%
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 5, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices no new UK Prime Minister in 2026 at 34.5%, reflecting Keir Starmer's resolve to endure amid Labour's polling slump and economic pressures, though upcoming May 7 local elections—previewed as potential record losses of over 2,000 council seats—pose high jeopardy for his leadership. Angela Rayner leads successors at 21.5% on deputy experience and union support, ahead of Andy Burnham (13.1%), whose Greater Manchester mayoral popularity and soft-left pact discussions with Rayner boost his appeal despite lacking a Commons seat, and Alistair Carns (12.6%), the ex-Royal Marine Armed Forces Minister drawing wildcard interest for military credentials and working-class roots. Heavy local defeats could trigger an orderly transition and leadership contest by party conference, consolidating factions behind a unifying contender ahead of 2029 polls.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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