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icon for Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?
Politics·Extradite

Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?

icon for Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?
Politics·Extradite

Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?

46% chance
Polymarket
NEW
46% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ruben Rocha Moya ceases to be the Governor of Sinaloa for any period of time between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Rocha Moya’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Ruben Rocha Moya and the governments of Mexico and Sinaloa; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. U.S. prosecutors unsealed an indictment on April 29 charging Sinaloa Governor Rubén Rocha Moya with drug trafficking and weapons offenses tied to the Sinaloa Cartel, alleging pre-2021 election pacts with Chapitos leaders for protection and support. Rocha denies the claims as politically motivated, vows to continue governing, and faces no immediate removal after Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum questioned evidence sufficiency while directing the FGR to investigate a U.S. extradition request. With Morena's congressional support in Sinaloa and gubernatorial impeachment requiring supermajority votes amid sovereignty tensions, traders price a 72.5% "No" probability, viewing procedural hurdles and lack of resignation signals as barring ouster by May 31.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ruben Rocha Moya ceases to be the Governor of Sinaloa for any period of time between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Rocha Moya’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Ruben Rocha Moya and the governments of Mexico and Sinaloa; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$431
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 3:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ruben Rocha Moya ceases to be the Governor of Sinaloa for any period of time between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Rocha Moya’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Ruben Rocha Moya and the governments of Mexico and Sinaloa; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ruben Rocha Moya ceases to be the Governor of Sinaloa for any period of time between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Rocha Moya’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Ruben Rocha Moya and the governments of Mexico and Sinaloa; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. U.S. prosecutors unsealed an indictment on April 29 charging Sinaloa Governor Rubén Rocha Moya with drug trafficking and weapons offenses tied to the Sinaloa Cartel, alleging pre-2021 election pacts with Chapitos leaders for protection and support. Rocha denies the claims as politically motivated, vows to continue governing, and faces no immediate removal after Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum questioned evidence sufficiency while directing the FGR to investigate a U.S. extradition request. With Morena's congressional support in Sinaloa and gubernatorial impeachment requiring supermajority votes amid sovereignty tensions, traders price a 72.5% "No" probability, viewing procedural hurdles and lack of resignation signals as barring ouster by May 31.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ruben Rocha Moya ceases to be the Governor of Sinaloa for any period of time between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Rocha Moya’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Ruben Rocha Moya and the governments of Mexico and Sinaloa; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$431
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 3:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ruben Rocha Moya ceases to be the Governor of Sinaloa for any period of time between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Rocha Moya’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Ruben Rocha Moya and the governments of Mexico and Sinaloa; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 46% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 46¢, the market collectively assigns a 46% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 30, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?" is 46% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 46% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.