With 158 X posts by Elon Musk through April 29—averaging 26 daily over the first six days of the April 24-May 1 window—traders price 180-199 at 47% implied probability, reflecting projections of steady 22-26 posts per day amid recent moderation from early April peaks above 30. Yesterday's activity included announcements on X advertising upgrades and replies on political topics like COVID handling and wealth taxes, maintaining his typical volume without escalation triggers. The 160-179 bucket at 32% captures risks of slight slowdowns seen in prior quieter weeks, while higher ranges fade due to no scheduled events like launches or controversies to spike output, aligning with historical posting patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedElon Musk # tweets April 24 - May 1, 2026?
Elon Musk # tweets April 24 - May 1, 2026?
180-199 48.3%
160-179 30.3%
200-219 15%
220-239 2.9%
$10,934,133 Vol.
$10,934,133 Vol.
May 1, 2026
140-159
<1%
160-179
30%
180-199
48%
200-219
15%
220-239
3%
240-259
1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
180-199 48.3%
160-179 30.3%
200-219 15%
220-239 2.9%
$10,934,133 Vol.
$10,934,133 Vol.
May 1, 2026
140-159
$2,607,367 Vol.
<1%
160-179
$1,220,695 Vol.
30%
180-199
$647,676 Vol.
48%
200-219
$545,665 Vol.
15%
220-239
$557,174 Vol.
3%
240-259
$516,638 Vol.
1%
260-279
$453,495 Vol.
<1%
280-299
$502,761 Vol.
<1%
300-319
$494,261 Vol.
<1%
320-339
$474,417 Vol.
<1%
340-359
$404,182 Vol.
<1%
360-379
$314,683 Vol.
<1%
380-399
$339,890 Vol.
<1%
400-419
$209,639 Vol.
<1%
420-439
$133,153 Vol.
<1%
440-459
$161,804 Vol.
<1%
460-479
$122,331 Vol.
<1%
480-499
$106,549 Vol.
<1%
500-519
$96,077 Vol.
<1%
520-539
$81,186 Vol.
<1%
540-559
$57,312 Vol.
<1%
560-579
$69,027 Vol.
<1%
580+
$164,263 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 24 12:00 PM ET to May 1, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.With 158 X posts by Elon Musk through April 29—averaging 26 daily over the first six days of the April 24-May 1 window—traders price 180-199 at 47% implied probability, reflecting projections of steady 22-26 posts per day amid recent moderation from early April peaks above 30. Yesterday's activity included announcements on X advertising upgrades and replies on political topics like COVID handling and wealth taxes, maintaining his typical volume without escalation triggers. The 160-179 bucket at 32% captures risks of slight slowdowns seen in prior quieter weeks, while higher ranges fade due to no scheduled events like launches or controversies to spike output, aligning with historical posting patterns.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 24 12:00 PM ET to May 1, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Apr 21, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$10,934,133End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 24 12:00 PM ET to May 1, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.With 158 X posts by Elon Musk through April 29—averaging 26 daily over the first six days of the April 24-May 1 window—traders price 180-199 at 47% implied probability, reflecting projections of steady 22-26 posts per day amid recent moderation from early April peaks above 30. Yesterday's activity included announcements on X advertising upgrades and replies on political topics like COVID handling and wealth taxes, maintaining his typical volume without escalation triggers. The 160-179 bucket at 32% captures risks of slight slowdowns seen in prior quieter weeks, while higher ranges fade due to no scheduled events like launches or controversies to spike output, aligning with historical posting patterns.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 24 12:00 PM ET to May 1, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$10,934,133End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...With 158 X posts by Elon Musk through April 29—averaging 26 daily over the first six days of the April 24-May 1 window—traders price 180-199 at 47% implied probability, reflecting projections of steady 22-26 posts per day amid recent moderation from early April peaks above 30. Yesterday's activity included announcements on X advertising upgrades and replies on political topics like COVID handling and wealth taxes, maintaining his typical volume without escalation triggers. The 160-179 bucket at 32% captures risks of slight slowdowns seen in prior quieter weeks, while higher ranges fade due to no scheduled events like launches or controversies to spike output, aligning with historical posting patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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