Recent polls reflect trader consensus pinning President Trump's approval rating near 39-40% for May 8, driven by a late-April deluge of surveys showing second-term lows around 37-39% amid surging gas prices, inflation concerns, and the ongoing war with Iran. AP-NORC (33% approve), Reuters/Ipsos (34-36%), and Marquette Law School (39%) polls underscore economic discontent dragging numbers down, while Rasmussen (43%) and Fox News (42%) provide upside from GOP base support, keeping bins like <39% (35%) and 39.0-39.4% (28.5%) tightly matched. Volatility persists due to partisan polling gaps; de-escalation in Iran, favorable economic data, or executive actions on costs could lift odds above 40%, while escalation or weak jobs reports might push below 39%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<39.0 52%
39.0–39.4 28%
39.5–39.9 27%
40.5–40.9 27%
NEW
NEW
May 9, 2026
<39.0
52%
39.0–39.4
28%
39.5–39.9
27%
40.0–40.4
25%
40.5–40.9
27%
41.0+
14%
<39.0 52%
39.0–39.4 28%
39.5–39.9 27%
40.5–40.9 27%
NEW
NEW
May 9, 2026
<39.0
$28 Vol.
52%
39.0–39.4
$0 Vol.
28%
39.5–39.9
$0 Vol.
27%
40.0–40.4
$0 Vol.
25%
40.5–40.9
$0 Vol.
27%
41.0+
$0 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on May 8, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent polls reflect trader consensus pinning President Trump's approval rating near 39-40% for May 8, driven by a late-April deluge of surveys showing second-term lows around 37-39% amid surging gas prices, inflation concerns, and the ongoing war with Iran. AP-NORC (33% approve), Reuters/Ipsos (34-36%), and Marquette Law School (39%) polls underscore economic discontent dragging numbers down, while Rasmussen (43%) and Fox News (42%) provide upside from GOP base support, keeping bins like <39% (35%) and 39.0-39.4% (28.5%) tightly matched. Volatility persists due to partisan polling gaps; de-escalation in Iran, favorable economic data, or executive actions on costs could lift odds above 40%, while escalation or weak jobs reports might push below 39%.
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on May 8, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Apr 30, 2026, 2:36 PM ET
Volume
$28End Date
May 9, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on May 8, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent polls reflect trader consensus pinning President Trump's approval rating near 39-40% for May 8, driven by a late-April deluge of surveys showing second-term lows around 37-39% amid surging gas prices, inflation concerns, and the ongoing war with Iran. AP-NORC (33% approve), Reuters/Ipsos (34-36%), and Marquette Law School (39%) polls underscore economic discontent dragging numbers down, while Rasmussen (43%) and Fox News (42%) provide upside from GOP base support, keeping bins like <39% (35%) and 39.0-39.4% (28.5%) tightly matched. Volatility persists due to partisan polling gaps; de-escalation in Iran, favorable economic data, or executive actions on costs could lift odds above 40%, while escalation or weak jobs reports might push below 39%.
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on May 8, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$28End Date
May 9, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls reflect trader consensus pinning President Trump's approval rating near 39-40% for May 8, driven by a late-April deluge of surveys showing second-term lows around 37-39% amid surging gas prices, inflation concerns, and the ongoing war with Iran. AP-NORC (33% approve), Reuters/Ipsos (34-36%), and Marquette Law School (39%) polls underscore economic discontent dragging numbers down, while Rasmussen (43%) and Fox News (42%) provide upside from GOP base support, keeping bins like <39% (35%) and 39.0-39.4% (28.5%) tightly matched. Volatility persists due to partisan polling gaps; de-escalation in Iran, favorable economic data, or executive actions on costs could lift odds above 40%, while escalation or weak jobs reports might push below 39%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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