Gabriel Attal launches a book tour and prepares for a May meeting to officially announce his candidacy, while facing skepticism and criticism from political partners, reflecting a

Gabriel Attal rises to 4%1%

Gabriel Attal launches a book tour and prepares for a May meeting to officially announce his candidacy, while facing skepticism and criticism from political partners, reflecting a mixed but persistent campaign momentum

Philippe continues a cautious campaign approach, focusing on gradual program unveiling and avoiding overexposure, which stabilizes but slightly lowers market confidence

Édouard Philippe dips to 22%2%

Philippe continues a cautious campaign approach, focusing on gradual program unveiling and avoiding overexposure, which stabilizes but slightly lowers market confidence

Post‑municipal‑election analysis (Reuters) highlights that centrist parties gained unexpectedly, suggesting a possible “republican front” that could block RN candidates, pushing

Post‑municipal‑election analysis (Reuters) highlights that centrist parties gained unexpectedly, suggesting a possible “republican front” that could block RN candidates, pushing her odds down to a new low (no change, but confirms the low level).

LR party members vote overwhelmingly (73.8%) to designate Retailleau as the official candidate without a primary, solidifying his candidacy but also exposing internal party

Bruno Retailleau rises to 4%1%

LR party members vote overwhelmingly (73.8%) to designate Retailleau as the official candidate without a primary, solidifying his candidacy but also exposing internal party tensions and skepticism about his electability

The Israeli ambassador's meeting with Marine Le Pen signals ongoing international outreach by the far right, but no significant shift in her electoral prospects, with her market

Marine Le Pen dips to 6%2%

The Israeli ambassador's meeting with Marine Le Pen signals ongoing international outreach by the far right, but no significant shift in her electoral prospects, with her market

Guardian editorial notes that Le Pen remains ineligible unless a July appeal overturns her ban, but polls still give the RN a sizeable lead, causing a modest rebound in her odds

Marine Le Pen dips to 6%4%

Guardian editorial notes that Le Pen remains ineligible unless a July appeal overturns her ban, but polls still give the RN a sizeable lead, causing a modest rebound in her odds

Ahead of his book release, Attal publicly states he "thinks he knows how to preside over France," marking a step up in his campaign visibility and seriousness, which briefly

Gabriel Attal rises to 4%1%

Ahead of his book release, Attal publicly states he "thinks he knows how to preside over France," marking a step up in his campaign visibility and seriousness, which briefly lifted market confidence

Philippe confirms his upward trend in polls with 26% voter satisfaction, though still trailing Jordan Bardella, maintaining his position as a leading centrist candidate

Édouard Philippe rises to 26%2%

Philippe confirms his upward trend in polls with 26% voter satisfaction, though still trailing Jordan Bardella, maintaining his position as a leading centrist candidate

A slight market correction occurs as Philippe’s momentum faces challenges from other center-right contenders and the fragmented political landscape

Édouard Philippe dips to 26%4%

A slight market correction occurs as Philippe’s momentum faces challenges from other center-right contenders and the fragmented political landscape

Bardella hits a low point in polls amid growing concerns about the National Rally’s ability to broaden its appeal beyond its base, reflected in market

Jordan Bardella drops to 19%6%

Bardella hits a low point in polls amid growing concerns about the National Rally’s ability to broaden its appeal beyond its base, reflected in market

Bruno Retailleau receives official backing from LR members as their presidential candidate with 73.8% support, but polling shows him under 10% voter intention, indicating limited

Bruno Retailleau rises to 6%2%

Bruno Retailleau receives official backing from LR members as their presidential candidate with 73.8% support, but polling shows him under 10% voter intention, indicating limited broader appeal despite party endorsement

Polls show Philippe narrowing the gap with National Rally’s Jordan Bardella after a campaign tour, lifting his market odds significantly

Édouard Philippe jumps to 30%10%

Polls show Philippe narrowing the gap with National Rally’s Jordan Bardella after a campaign tour, lifting his market odds significantly

Market reacts negatively to reports of increased protests and controversies surrounding Bardella’s far-right policies and public image, causing a sharp

Jordan Bardella drops to 20%5%

Market reacts negatively to reports of increased protests and controversies surrounding Bardella’s far-right policies and public image, causing a sharp

The 2026 municipal elections show mixed results for the far right: gains in smaller towns but losses in major cities like Marseille, signaling limits to Le Pen's appeal and

Marine Le Pen dips to 8%3%

The 2026 municipal elections show mixed results for the far right: gains in smaller towns but losses in major cities like Marseille, signaling limits to Le Pen's appeal and reinforcing doubts about her presidential prospects, which kept her market

LFI expected to win major local election in Roubaix, seen as a boost for Mélenchon’s presidential bid and a sign of local momentum despite national challenges.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon rises to 9%2%

LFI expected to win major local election in Roubaix, seen as a boost for Mélenchon’s presidential bid and a sign of local momentum despite national challenges.

First round of the 2026 municipal elections shows RN strong results, with Le Pen’s party posting its best‑ever first‑round scores, boosting her perceived momentum

Marine Le Pen dips to 10%1%

First round of the 2026 municipal elections shows RN strong results, with Le Pen’s party posting its best‑ever first‑round scores, boosting her perceived momentum

Philippe wins reelection as mayor of Le Havre, reinforcing his political base and boosting his national profile as a strong candidate against the far right

Édouard Philippe rises to 18%4%

Philippe wins reelection as mayor of Le Havre, reinforcing his political base and boosting his national profile as a strong candidate against the far right

Retailleau publicly declares his presidential candidacy with a serious campaign launch, aiming to create momentum and a surge in polls;

Bruno Retailleau jumps to 10%6%

this announcement briefly boosted market confidence

Reuters reports that despite the legal cloud, polls still give Le Pen and Bardella a solid shot at power, reinforcing her base after the appeal started

Marine Le Pen dips to 11%2%

Reuters reports that despite the legal cloud, polls still give Le Pen and Bardella a solid shot at power, reinforcing her base after the appeal started

Reports highlight the National Rally's solid shot at power with either Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella as candidates, but Bardella's rising popularity and perceived electability

Marine Le Pen drops to 9%5%

Reports highlight the National Rally's solid shot at power with either Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella as candidates, but Bardella's rising popularity and perceived electability put Le Pen on the defensive, contributing to a gradual decline in her market

Bardella’s poll numbers peak again after strong public appearances and media coverage framing him as the new face of the far right in France, boosting market optimism

Jordan Bardella jumps to 33%5%

Bardella’s poll numbers peak again after strong public appearances and media coverage framing him as the new face of the far right in France, boosting market optimism

Polling and analysis suggest that despite Le Pen's legal troubles, her party's momentum remains strong, but her protégé Jordan Bardella is increasingly seen as a more popular and

Marine Le Pen drops to 14%8%

Polling and analysis suggest that despite Le Pen's legal troubles, her party's momentum remains strong, but her protégé Jordan Bardella is increasingly seen as a more popular and less tainted candidate, causing a market correction downward to around 14%

Reports emphasize Bardella’s nationwide tour promoting his new book and consolidating his image as a presidential contender, but also note challenges from centrist and left-wing

Jordan Bardella drops to 28%5%

Reports emphasize Bardella’s nationwide tour promoting his new book and consolidating his image as a presidential contender, but also note challenges from centrist and left-wing opponents, leading to a dip in market confidence

Court hearing continues; Bardella warns that disqualifying Le Pen would harm French democracy, keeping media focus on her legal fate

Marine Le Pen drops to 13%9%

Court hearing continues; Bardella warns that disqualifying Le Pen would harm French democracy, keeping media focus on her legal fate

Marine Le Pen begins a crucial appeal in Paris to overturn her five-year ban from running for office, drawing significant media attention.

Marine Le Pen surges to 22%15%

This legal development briefly boosted her market

Le Pen begins her appeal in Paris, a trial that could lift the ban and restore her candidacy

Marine Le Pen surges to 22%15%

Le Pen begins her appeal in Paris, a trial that could lift the ban and restore her candidacy

Dominique de Villepin makes public statements urging caution on foreign intervention in Iran amid unrest, maintaining media presence but not significantly improving electoral

Dominique de Villepin makes public statements urging caution on foreign intervention in Iran amid unrest, maintaining media presence but not significantly improving electoral prospects, coinciding with a minor

Despite internal party doubts and criticism over his political strategy and distancing from Emmanuel Macron, Attal pushes ahead with his bid, criticizing government use of Article

Gabriel Attal dips to 6%3%

Despite internal party doubts and criticism over his political strategy and distancing from Emmanuel Macron, Attal pushes ahead with his bid, criticizing government use of Article 49.3 on the budget, signaling tensions that likely contributed to

Mélenchon shifts campaign focus from international issues like Gaza to domestic economic concerns, proposing support for small businesses, aiming to broaden appeal beyond his core

Jean-Luc Mélenchon rises to 12%3%

Mélenchon shifts campaign focus from international issues like Gaza to domestic economic concerns, proposing support for small businesses, aiming to broaden appeal beyond his core base.

Marine Le Pen’s ongoing legal appeals and uncertainty about her candidacy create speculation about Bardella’s definitive role as the RN candidate, causing some market hesitation

Jordan Bardella dips to 32%4%

Marine Le Pen’s ongoing legal appeals and uncertainty about her candidacy create speculation about Bardella’s definitive role as the RN candidate, causing some market hesitation amid political uncertainty

Éric Ciotti wins the internal leadership vote for The Republicans, defeating Retailleau;

this internal party defeat likely weakened Retailleau’s immediate prospects and contributed to early

Gabriel Attal expresses clear policy positions in interviews, emphasizing immigration reform and social spending cuts to invest in education and innovation, while remaining open

Gabriel Attal dips to 6%1%

Gabriel Attal expresses clear policy positions in interviews, emphasizing immigration reform and social spending cuts to invest in education and innovation, while remaining open to a primary among right and center candidates, which tempered market enthusiasm

Poll shows Jean-Luc Mélenchon as the most rejected political figure in France with only 14% approval, despite being a major left-wing contender;

Jean-Luc Mélenchon drops to 9%9%

this high rejection likely caused the sharp

Multiple outlets report Bardella’s lead in polls showing him winning the first round with about 35-36% and defeating all rivals in the second round, highlighting his appeal to

Jordan Bardella jumps to 34%7%

Multiple outlets report Bardella’s lead in polls showing him winning the first round with about 35-36% and defeating all rivals in the second round, highlighting his appeal to younger voters and the far-right’s growing popularity

French pollster Odoxa predicts Jordan Bardella would win the 2027 presidential election against any opponent, marking the first time Bardella leads in such polls;

Jordan Bardella drops to 27%7%

this surge followed Marine Le Pen’s five-year ban from public office, positioning Bardella as the National Rally’s natural candidate

Mélenchon gains some renewed popularity among left-wing voters after municipal election successes for LFI, improving his image slightly but not enough to offset broader rejection.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon rises to 11%2%

Mélenchon gains some renewed popularity among left-wing voters after municipal election successes for LFI, improving his image slightly but not enough to offset broader rejection.

Bruno Retailleau officially announces his candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election, emphasizing a new path focused on order, prosperity, and French pride;

Bruno Retailleau plunges to 5%23%

this formal declaration marked the start of his campaign and clarified his intentions to the market

Gabriel Attal officially signals his presidential ambitions with the announcement of his candidacy and publication of his book "En homme libre," outlining his convictions and

Gabriel Attal dips to 13%3%

Gabriel Attal officially signals his presidential ambitions with the announcement of his candidacy and publication of his book "En homme libre," outlining his convictions and political project, which triggered initial market interest and volatility

Marine Le Pen's conviction for embezzlement and five-year ban from running for public office, announced in March 2025, continued to weigh on her candidacy prospects, keeping her

Marine Le Pen drops to 9%7%

Marine Le Pen's conviction for embezzlement and five-year ban from running for public office, announced in March 2025, continued to weigh on her candidacy prospects, keeping her market

Dominique de Villepin officially launches his new political party, Humanist France, aiming to unite French citizens across political lines and defend social justice, signaling a

Dominique de Villepin officially launches his new political party, Humanist France, aiming to unite French citizens across political lines and defend social justice, signaling a formal step toward a presidential bid and causing a brief

Dominique de Villepin tops the list of French people's favorite political figures in an Ifop-Fiducial poll, regaining first place with 51% favorable opinions due to his firm

Dominique de Villepin tops the list of French people's favorite political figures in an Ifop-Fiducial poll, regaining first place with 51% favorable opinions due to his firm stances on international issues like the Gaza war, boosting early market optimism about his presidential prospects

Philippe’s campaign gains momentum with a peak in polling after consolidating support among center-right voters and emphasizing his executive experience

Édouard Philippe rises to 16%3%

Philippe’s campaign gains momentum with a peak in polling after consolidating support among center-right voters and emphasizing his executive experience

After a period of low support, Philippe gains 4 points following media appearances and political commentary distancing himself from Macron, signaling renewed voter interest

Édouard Philippe rises to 20%4%

After a period of low support, Philippe gains 4 points following media appearances and political commentary distancing himself from Macron, signaling renewed voter interest

Philippe’s polling support dips amid a period of political uncertainty and competition within the center-right, reflecting a trough in market confidence

Édouard Philippe dips to 16%2%

Philippe’s polling support dips amid a period of political uncertainty and competition within the center-right, reflecting a trough in market confidence

Édouard Philippe officially announces his candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election, positioning himself early as a contender and setting the stage for his campaign

Édouard Philippe rises to 22%1%

Édouard Philippe officially announces his candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election, positioning himself early as a contender and setting the stage for his campaign