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Elections·Global Elections

Next French Presidential Election

icon for Next French Presidential Election
Elections·Global Elections

Next French Presidential Election

Jordan Bardella 27%

Édouard Philippe 21%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon 13%

Marine Le Pen 8%

Polymarket

$99,453,019 Vol.

Jordan Bardella 27%

Édouard Philippe 21%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon 13%

Marine Le Pen 8%

Polymarket

$99,453,019 Vol.

icon for Jordan Bardella

Jordan Bardella

$1,115,752 Vol.

27%

icon for Édouard Philippe

Édouard Philippe

$932,428 Vol.

21%

icon for Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

$724,015 Vol.

13%

icon for Marine Le Pen

Marine Le Pen

$791,066 Vol.

8%

icon for Gabriel Attal

Gabriel Attal

$1,626,256 Vol.

4%

icon for François Hollande

François Hollande

$1,174,730 Vol.

3%

icon for Dominique de Villepin

Dominique de Villepin

$1,384,554 Vol.

3%

icon for David Lisnard

David Lisnard

$1,356,942 Vol.

2%

icon for Raphaël Glucksmann

Raphaël Glucksmann

$1,147,291 Vol.

2%

icon for Bruno Retailleau

Bruno Retailleau

$1,558,355 Vol.

2%

icon for Sarah Knafo

Sarah Knafo

$1,437,824 Vol.

2%

icon for Éric Zemmour

Éric Zemmour

$1,668,416 Vol.

1%

icon for Laurent Wauquiez

Laurent Wauquiez

$3,096,808 Vol.

1%

icon for Sébastien Lecornu

Sébastien Lecornu

$1,085,251 Vol.

1%

icon for Michel Barnier

Michel Barnier

$4,662,029 Vol.

1%

icon for Gérald Darmanin

Gérald Darmanin

$1,388,109 Vol.

1%

icon for Fabien Roussel

Fabien Roussel

$3,339,789 Vol.

1%

icon for François Asselineau

François Asselineau

$4,982,136 Vol.

1%

icon for Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

$3,838,800 Vol.

1%

icon for Valérie Pécresse

Valérie Pécresse

$3,494,892 Vol.

1%

icon for Élisabeth Borne

Élisabeth Borne

$4,715,252 Vol.

1%

icon for Jean Castex

Jean Castex

$897,370 Vol.

1%

icon for Carole Delga

Carole Delga

$3,931,092 Vol.

1%

icon for Manuel Bompard

Manuel Bompard

$4,111,926 Vol.

1%

icon for Juan Branco

Juan Branco

$1,537,836 Vol.

1%

icon for Xavier Bertrand

Xavier Bertrand

$4,564,678 Vol.

1%

icon for François Ruffin

François Ruffin

$2,588,246 Vol.

1%

icon for Marine Tondelier

Marine Tondelier

$3,031,309 Vol.

1%

icon for Olivier Faure

Olivier Faure

$4,441,643 Vol.

1%

icon for Ségolène Royal

Ségolène Royal

$4,417,736 Vol.

1%

icon for Clémentine Autain

Clémentine Autain

$3,971,602 Vol.

1%

icon for François Bayrou

François Bayrou

$4,866,485 Vol.

1%

icon for Yaël Braun-Pivet

Yaël Braun-Pivet

$4,929,808 Vol.

1%

icon for Bernard Cazeneuve

Bernard Cazeneuve

$1,629,043 Vol.

1%

icon for Mathilde Panot

Mathilde Panot

$5,428,958 Vol.

1%

icon for Clémence Guetté

Clémence Guetté

$3,586,115 Vol.

1%

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Bardella maintains a lead in trader pricing for the 2027 French presidential election due to consistent polling strength for the National Rally in the first round, amid Macron's term limits and a fragmented political landscape. Philippe trails closely as the main center-right alternative capable of challenging in a runoff, while Mélenchon's positioning boosts left-wing prospects in multi-candidate scenarios. Le Pen's lower odds reflect ongoing legal uncertainties around her eligibility. The tight spread among top contenders stems from center fragmentation, uncertain left alliances ahead of any primary, and shifting voter blocs, with developments such as candidate consolidation, further polling shifts, or legal rulings likely to create clearer separation before the April vote.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.

The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Volume
$99,453,019
End Date
Apr 30, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Bardella maintains a lead in trader pricing for the 2027 French presidential election due to consistent polling strength for the National Rally in the first round, amid Macron's term limits and a fragmented political landscape. Philippe trails closely as the main center-right alternative capable of challenging in a runoff, while Mélenchon's positioning boosts left-wing prospects in multi-candidate scenarios. Le Pen's lower odds reflect ongoing legal uncertainties around her eligibility. The tight spread among top contenders stems from center fragmentation, uncertain left alliances ahead of any primary, and shifting voter blocs, with developments such as candidate consolidation, further polling shifts, or legal rulings likely to create clearer separation before the April vote.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.

The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Volume
$99,453,019
End Date
Apr 30, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Related

icon for Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?

Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?

68%
icon for Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

92%
icon for Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?

99%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next French Presidential Election" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Jordan Bardella" at 27%, followed by "Édouard Philippe" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 27¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next French Presidential Election" has generated $99.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 13, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next French Presidential Election," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next French Presidential Election" is "Jordan Bardella" at 27%, meaning the market assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Édouard Philippe" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next French Presidential Election" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.