Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 12°C (51%) and 11°C (44.5%) for Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 1, reflecting model spread in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) guidance and global ensembles like ECMWF and GFS, which project an overnight minimum near 11.5°C under partly cloudy skies and light winds favoring radiative cooling. Recent 24-hour model runs show minimal shifts, with no major developments like fronts in the past week; instead, springtime upper-air patterns dictate a cooler-than-average airmass post-April variability. Differentiating factors include nocturnal cloudiness degree and dawn timing of the low at Tokyo's official station, where urban heat island effects typically buffer 1°C above rural readings. JMA's next 00Z forecast update will likely clarify before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on May 1?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 1?
12°C 46%
11°C 33.1%
10°C 2.9%
9°C <1%
NEW
NEW
May 1, 2026
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
3%
11°C
33%
12°C
54%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C or higher
<1%
12°C 46%
11°C 33.1%
10°C 2.9%
9°C <1%
NEW
NEW
May 1, 2026
7°C or below
$394 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$339 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$119 Vol.
1%
10°C
$484 Vol.
3%
11°C
$182 Vol.
33%
12°C
$73 Vol.
54%
13°C
$192 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$292 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$478 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$721 Vol.
<1%
17°C or higher
$917 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 12°C (51%) and 11°C (44.5%) for Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 1, reflecting model spread in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) guidance and global ensembles like ECMWF and GFS, which project an overnight minimum near 11.5°C under partly cloudy skies and light winds favoring radiative cooling. Recent 24-hour model runs show minimal shifts, with no major developments like fronts in the past week; instead, springtime upper-air patterns dictate a cooler-than-average airmass post-April variability. Differentiating factors include nocturnal cloudiness degree and dawn timing of the low at Tokyo's official station, where urban heat island effects typically buffer 1°C above rural readings. JMA's next 00Z forecast update will likely clarify before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$4,121End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 12°C (51%) and 11°C (44.5%) for Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 1, reflecting model spread in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) guidance and global ensembles like ECMWF and GFS, which project an overnight minimum near 11.5°C under partly cloudy skies and light winds favoring radiative cooling. Recent 24-hour model runs show minimal shifts, with no major developments like fronts in the past week; instead, springtime upper-air patterns dictate a cooler-than-average airmass post-April variability. Differentiating factors include nocturnal cloudiness degree and dawn timing of the low at Tokyo's official station, where urban heat island effects typically buffer 1°C above rural readings. JMA's next 00Z forecast update will likely clarify before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$4,121End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 12°C (51%) and 11°C (44.5%) for Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 1, reflecting model spread in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) guidance and global ensembles like ECMWF and GFS, which project an overnight minimum near 11.5°C under partly cloudy skies and light winds favoring radiative cooling. Recent 24-hour model runs show minimal shifts, with no major developments like fronts in the past week; instead, springtime upper-air patterns dictate a cooler-than-average airmass post-April variability. Differentiating factors include nocturnal cloudiness degree and dawn timing of the low at Tokyo's official station, where urban heat island effects typically buffer 1°C above rural readings. JMA's next 00Z forecast update will likely clarify before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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