**Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and consensus model guidance position an 18°C minimum as the most likely outcome for Tokyo on June 15, 2026.** Mid-June falls within the East Asian rainy season (tsuyu), when persistent cloud cover, higher humidity, and frequent light rain moderate overnight cooling, typically keeping lows near the long-term average of about 18–19°C. Current short-range guidance indicates a minimum near or slightly above 18°C, with limited downside risk from clearer skies or drier air that could allow temperatures to dip to 17°C or lower. Recent model runs have shown stable steering patterns and no strong cold-air advection, supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward 18°C while assigning only modest probability to 17°C. Resolution will depend on the official Tokyo station observation, with any last-minute forecast adjustments from the JMA or additional model consensus shifts representing the main variables that could still influence final settlement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on June 15?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on June 15?
18°C 91%
17°C 8%
16°C 3.2%
14°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Jun 15, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
1%
16°C
3%
17°C
8%
18°C
91%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C or higher
<1%
18°C 91%
17°C 8%
16°C 3.2%
14°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Jun 15, 2026
13°C or below
$635 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$1,287 Vol.
1%
15°C
$1,845 Vol.
1%
16°C
$386 Vol.
3%
17°C
$146 Vol.
8%
18°C
$569 Vol.
91%
19°C
$1,833 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$639 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$886 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$592 Vol.
<1%
23°C or higher
$387 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and consensus model guidance position an 18°C minimum as the most likely outcome for Tokyo on June 15, 2026.**
Mid-June falls within the East Asian rainy season (tsuyu), when persistent cloud cover, higher humidity, and frequent light rain moderate overnight cooling, typically keeping lows near the long-term average of about 18–19°C. Current short-range guidance indicates a minimum near or slightly above 18°C, with limited downside risk from clearer skies or drier air that could allow temperatures to dip to 17°C or lower. Recent model runs have shown stable steering patterns and no strong cold-air advection, supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward 18°C while assigning only modest probability to 17°C. Resolution will depend on the official Tokyo station observation, with any last-minute forecast adjustments from the JMA or additional model consensus shifts representing the main variables that could still influence final settlement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 13, 2026, 12:34 AM ET
Volume
$9,110End Date
Jun 15, 2026Market Opened
Jun 13, 2026, 12:34 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and consensus model guidance position an 18°C minimum as the most likely outcome for Tokyo on June 15, 2026.**
Mid-June falls within the East Asian rainy season (tsuyu), when persistent cloud cover, higher humidity, and frequent light rain moderate overnight cooling, typically keeping lows near the long-term average of about 18–19°C. Current short-range guidance indicates a minimum near or slightly above 18°C, with limited downside risk from clearer skies or drier air that could allow temperatures to dip to 17°C or lower. Recent model runs have shown stable steering patterns and no strong cold-air advection, supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward 18°C while assigning only modest probability to 17°C. Resolution will depend on the official Tokyo station observation, with any last-minute forecast adjustments from the JMA or additional model consensus shifts representing the main variables that could still influence final settlement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$9,110End Date
Jun 15, 2026Market Opened
Jun 13, 2026, 12:34 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and consensus model guidance position an 18°C minimum as the most likely outcome for Tokyo on June 15, 2026.** Mid-June falls within the East Asian rainy season (tsuyu), when persistent cloud cover, higher humidity, and frequent light rain moderate overnight cooling, typically keeping lows near the long-term average of about 18–19°C. Current short-range guidance indicates a minimum near or slightly above 18°C, with limited downside risk from clearer skies or drier air that could allow temperatures to dip to 17°C or lower. Recent model runs have shown stable steering patterns and no strong cold-air advection, supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward 18°C while assigning only modest probability to 17°C. Resolution will depend on the official Tokyo station observation, with any last-minute forecast adjustments from the JMA or additional model consensus shifts representing the main variables that could still influence final settlement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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