Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo on June 15, 2026, indicate a minimum temperature near the seasonal normal of 18.7°C, with models showing rain and cloud cover limiting overnight cooling and keeping lows in the 17–19°C range. This consensus, reinforced by typical early-June transition patterns before peak humidity builds, drives the strong 79% market-implied probability for an 18°C low. Nearby outcomes at 17°C and 16°C reflect residual uncertainty in exact model runs and potential for slightly stronger cooling if showers intensify, while warmer or colder extremes remain heavily discounted given current atmospheric conditions and the narrow historical variability around this date. Updated JMA guidance and evening observations tomorrow will provide the final resolution data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on June 15?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on June 15?
18°C 91%
17°C 11%
16°C 3.7%
15°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Jun 15, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
4%
17°C
11%
18°C
91%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C or higher
<1%
18°C 91%
17°C 11%
16°C 3.7%
15°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Jun 15, 2026
13°C or below
$578 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$1,230 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$1,452 Vol.
1%
16°C
$227 Vol.
4%
17°C
$134 Vol.
11%
18°C
$423 Vol.
91%
19°C
$1,833 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$639 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$886 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$592 Vol.
<1%
23°C or higher
$387 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo on June 15, 2026, indicate a minimum temperature near the seasonal normal of 18.7°C, with models showing rain and cloud cover limiting overnight cooling and keeping lows in the 17–19°C range. This consensus, reinforced by typical early-June transition patterns before peak humidity builds, drives the strong 79% market-implied probability for an 18°C low. Nearby outcomes at 17°C and 16°C reflect residual uncertainty in exact model runs and potential for slightly stronger cooling if showers intensify, while warmer or colder extremes remain heavily discounted given current atmospheric conditions and the narrow historical variability around this date. Updated JMA guidance and evening observations tomorrow will provide the final resolution data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 13, 2026, 12:34 AM ET
Volume
$7,470End Date
Jun 15, 2026Market Opened
Jun 13, 2026, 12:34 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo on June 15, 2026, indicate a minimum temperature near the seasonal normal of 18.7°C, with models showing rain and cloud cover limiting overnight cooling and keeping lows in the 17–19°C range. This consensus, reinforced by typical early-June transition patterns before peak humidity builds, drives the strong 79% market-implied probability for an 18°C low. Nearby outcomes at 17°C and 16°C reflect residual uncertainty in exact model runs and potential for slightly stronger cooling if showers intensify, while warmer or colder extremes remain heavily discounted given current atmospheric conditions and the narrow historical variability around this date. Updated JMA guidance and evening observations tomorrow will provide the final resolution data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$7,470End Date
Jun 15, 2026Market Opened
Jun 13, 2026, 12:34 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo on June 15, 2026, indicate a minimum temperature near the seasonal normal of 18.7°C, with models showing rain and cloud cover limiting overnight cooling and keeping lows in the 17–19°C range. This consensus, reinforced by typical early-June transition patterns before peak humidity builds, drives the strong 79% market-implied probability for an 18°C low. Nearby outcomes at 17°C and 16°C reflect residual uncertainty in exact model runs and potential for slightly stronger cooling if showers intensify, while warmer or colder extremes remain heavily discounted given current atmospheric conditions and the narrow historical variability around this date. Updated JMA guidance and evening observations tomorrow will provide the final resolution data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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