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Lowest temperature in NYC on May 1?

icon for Lowest temperature in NYC on May 1?

Lowest temperature in NYC on May 1?

Apr 30

May 1

May 2

Apr 30

May 1

May 2

48-49°F 32%

46-47°F 32%

50-51°F 10.0%

44-45°F 6.1%

Polymarket
NEW

$17,792 Vol.

48-49°F 32%

46-47°F 32%

50-51°F 10.0%

44-45°F 6.1%

Polymarket
NEW

$17,792 Vol.

37°F or below

$10,688 Vol.

1%

38-39°F

$1,893 Vol.

1%

40-41°F

$480 Vol.

1%

42-43°F

$629 Vol.

2%

44-45°F

$547 Vol.

6%

46-47°F

$446 Vol.

32%

48-49°F

$537 Vol.

32%

50-51°F

$193 Vol.

10%

52-53°F

$266 Vol.

2%

54-55°F

$519 Vol.

1%

56°F or higher

$1,594 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service guidance alongside GFS and ECMWF ensemble outputs cluster New York City's Central Park lowest temperature on May 1 in the mid-to-upper 40s°F, fueling the razor-thin trader consensus between 48-49°F (32%) and 46-47°F (31.5%). Southeast winds of 7-10 mph are steering cooler maritime air inland after a recent low-pressure system, while lingering moisture and persistent cloud cover curb radiative cooling; sustained overcast skies tilt toward the upper range near 49°F, but any evening clearing could dip lows to 46°F. This setup undercuts the climatological May 1 minimum of 50°F amid typical spring variability. Watch 18Z model runs and evening soundings for late shifts.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$17,792
End Date
May 1, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:01 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service guidance alongside GFS and ECMWF ensemble outputs cluster New York City's Central Park lowest temperature on May 1 in the mid-to-upper 40s°F, fueling the razor-thin trader consensus between 48-49°F (32%) and 46-47°F (31.5%). Southeast winds of 7-10 mph are steering cooler maritime air inland after a recent low-pressure system, while lingering moisture and persistent cloud cover curb radiative cooling; sustained overcast skies tilt toward the upper range near 49°F, but any evening clearing could dip lows to 46°F. This setup undercuts the climatological May 1 minimum of 50°F amid typical spring variability. Watch 18Z model runs and evening soundings for late shifts.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$17,792
End Date
May 1, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:01 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Lowest temperature in NYC on May 1?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "46-47°F" at 32%, followed by "48-49°F" at 32%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 32¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 32% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Lowest temperature in NYC on May 1?" has generated $17.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 29, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Lowest temperature in NYC on May 1?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Lowest temperature in NYC on May 1?" is "46-47°F" at 32%, meaning the market assigns a 32% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "48-49°F" at 32%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Lowest temperature in NYC on May 1?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.