National Weather Service guidance for Miami International Airport forecasts a pre-dawn low around 75°F on May 3 under partly cloudy skies with light southwest winds transitioning ahead of a frontal passage bringing showers later in the day, but closely matched market-implied odds around 48% for 72-73°F, 74-75°F, and nearby bins reflect significant ensemble spread in GFS and ECMWF models, where some members simulate enhanced nocturnal radiative cooling to 69°F or below under clearer conditions, while others maintain warmer lows via persistent low-level moisture and urban heat island effects. Recent unseasonable heat from a subtropical ridge has elevated prior nighttime minima near 70°F, with the approaching trough introducing uncertainty in cloud cover and precipitation timing that differentiates outcomes. New 12Z model runs and NWS updates expected today could sharpen trader consensus before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Miami on May 3?
Lowest temperature in Miami on May 3?
74-75°F 19%
76-77°F 15%
69°F or below 10%
72-73°F 10%
NEW
NEW
May 3, 2026
69°F or below
10%
70-71°F
5%
72-73°F
10%
74-75°F
19%
76-77°F
9%
78-79°F
9%
80-81°F
5%
82-83°F
1%
84-85°F
1%
86-87°F
1%
88°F or higher
<1%
74-75°F 19%
76-77°F 15%
69°F or below 10%
72-73°F 10%
NEW
NEW
May 3, 2026
69°F or below
$0 Vol.
10%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
5%
72-73°F
$10 Vol.
10%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
19%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
9%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
9%
80-81°F
$11 Vol.
5%
82-83°F
$55 Vol.
1%
84-85°F
$105 Vol.
1%
86-87°F
$58 Vol.
1%
88°F or higher
$201 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service guidance for Miami International Airport forecasts a pre-dawn low around 75°F on May 3 under partly cloudy skies with light southwest winds transitioning ahead of a frontal passage bringing showers later in the day, but closely matched market-implied odds around 48% for 72-73°F, 74-75°F, and nearby bins reflect significant ensemble spread in GFS and ECMWF models, where some members simulate enhanced nocturnal radiative cooling to 69°F or below under clearer conditions, while others maintain warmer lows via persistent low-level moisture and urban heat island effects. Recent unseasonable heat from a subtropical ridge has elevated prior nighttime minima near 70°F, with the approaching trough introducing uncertainty in cloud cover and precipitation timing that differentiates outcomes. New 12Z model runs and NWS updates expected today could sharpen trader consensus before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 1, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Volume
$440End Date
May 3, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service guidance for Miami International Airport forecasts a pre-dawn low around 75°F on May 3 under partly cloudy skies with light southwest winds transitioning ahead of a frontal passage bringing showers later in the day, but closely matched market-implied odds around 48% for 72-73°F, 74-75°F, and nearby bins reflect significant ensemble spread in GFS and ECMWF models, where some members simulate enhanced nocturnal radiative cooling to 69°F or below under clearer conditions, while others maintain warmer lows via persistent low-level moisture and urban heat island effects. Recent unseasonable heat from a subtropical ridge has elevated prior nighttime minima near 70°F, with the approaching trough introducing uncertainty in cloud cover and precipitation timing that differentiates outcomes. New 12Z model runs and NWS updates expected today could sharpen trader consensus before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$440End Date
May 3, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...National Weather Service guidance for Miami International Airport forecasts a pre-dawn low around 75°F on May 3 under partly cloudy skies with light southwest winds transitioning ahead of a frontal passage bringing showers later in the day, but closely matched market-implied odds around 48% for 72-73°F, 74-75°F, and nearby bins reflect significant ensemble spread in GFS and ECMWF models, where some members simulate enhanced nocturnal radiative cooling to 69°F or below under clearer conditions, while others maintain warmer lows via persistent low-level moisture and urban heat island effects. Recent unseasonable heat from a subtropical ridge has elevated prior nighttime minima near 70°F, with the approaching trough introducing uncertainty in cloud cover and precipitation timing that differentiates outcomes. New 12Z model runs and NWS updates expected today could sharpen trader consensus before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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