Trader consensus on Polymarket splits nearly evenly between 80°F or higher (50%) and the 74–79°F bins (46.5% each), reflecting forecast model uncertainty for Seattle's May 3 maximum temperature amid a building upper-level ridge over the Pacific Northwest. National Weather Service outlooks call for partly sunny skies with light onshore flow, favoring highs in the upper 70s to low 80s if morning marine stratus dissipates by midday, allowing stronger boundary-layer mixing and solar heating—well above the 63°F climatological normal. However, persistent low clouds or stronger northwest winds could cap peaks at 74–77°F, as seen in conservative GFS ensemble runs versus warmer ECMWF guidance. Key differentiator: early clearance of the Puget Sound stratus deck. Monitor 12Z model updates and NWS Seattle advisories for shifts ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Seattle on May 3?
Highest temperature in Seattle on May 3?
78-79°F 24%
76-77°F 19%
80°F or higher 10%
74-75°F 9%
NEW
NEW
May 3, 2026
61°F or below
1%
62-63°F
1%
64-65°F
1%
66-67°F
1%
68-69°F
4%
70-71°F
4%
72-73°F
4%
74-75°F
9%
76-77°F
19%
78-79°F
24%
80°F or higher
14%
78-79°F 24%
76-77°F 19%
80°F or higher 10%
74-75°F 9%
NEW
NEW
May 3, 2026
61°F or below
$5 Vol.
1%
62-63°F
$5 Vol.
1%
64-65°F
$5 Vol.
1%
66-67°F
$5 Vol.
1%
68-69°F
$10 Vol.
4%
70-71°F
$10 Vol.
4%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
4%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
9%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
19%
78-79°F
$179 Vol.
24%
80°F or higher
$44 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket splits nearly evenly between 80°F or higher (50%) and the 74–79°F bins (46.5% each), reflecting forecast model uncertainty for Seattle's May 3 maximum temperature amid a building upper-level ridge over the Pacific Northwest. National Weather Service outlooks call for partly sunny skies with light onshore flow, favoring highs in the upper 70s to low 80s if morning marine stratus dissipates by midday, allowing stronger boundary-layer mixing and solar heating—well above the 63°F climatological normal. However, persistent low clouds or stronger northwest winds could cap peaks at 74–77°F, as seen in conservative GFS ensemble runs versus warmer ECMWF guidance. Key differentiator: early clearance of the Puget Sound stratus deck. Monitor 12Z model updates and NWS Seattle advisories for shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 1, 2026, 12:53 AM ET
Volume
$263End Date
May 3, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 12:53 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket splits nearly evenly between 80°F or higher (50%) and the 74–79°F bins (46.5% each), reflecting forecast model uncertainty for Seattle's May 3 maximum temperature amid a building upper-level ridge over the Pacific Northwest. National Weather Service outlooks call for partly sunny skies with light onshore flow, favoring highs in the upper 70s to low 80s if morning marine stratus dissipates by midday, allowing stronger boundary-layer mixing and solar heating—well above the 63°F climatological normal. However, persistent low clouds or stronger northwest winds could cap peaks at 74–77°F, as seen in conservative GFS ensemble runs versus warmer ECMWF guidance. Key differentiator: early clearance of the Puget Sound stratus deck. Monitor 12Z model updates and NWS Seattle advisories for shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$263End Date
May 3, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 12:53 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket splits nearly evenly between 80°F or higher (50%) and the 74–79°F bins (46.5% each), reflecting forecast model uncertainty for Seattle's May 3 maximum temperature amid a building upper-level ridge over the Pacific Northwest. National Weather Service outlooks call for partly sunny skies with light onshore flow, favoring highs in the upper 70s to low 80s if morning marine stratus dissipates by midday, allowing stronger boundary-layer mixing and solar heating—well above the 63°F climatological normal. However, persistent low clouds or stronger northwest winds could cap peaks at 74–77°F, as seen in conservative GFS ensemble runs versus warmer ECMWF guidance. Key differentiator: early clearance of the Puget Sound stratus deck. Monitor 12Z model updates and NWS Seattle advisories for shifts ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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