Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the latest INMET and CPTEC forecast model runs projecting a high temperature near 19°C in São Paulo on May 3, driven by an advancing cold air mass from the south introducing widespread cloud cover and isolated morning showers that limit daytime heating. After recent warmer days with highs above 27°C, this frontal boundary introduces uncertainty, with ensemble models diverging by 2–3°C due to variable cloud persistence and timing of precipitation—key differentiators between 18–22°C outcomes, as fuller sun could push toward 21–22°C while prolonged overcast favors 18–19°C. Climatological May averages hover around 23°C, but autumnal polar outbreaks often suppress peaks; watch daily INMET updates for refined guidance ahead of resolution based on official airport station readings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on May 3?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on May 3?
19°C 28%
21°C 27%
22°C 16%
20°C 14%
NEW
NEW
May 3, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
1%
17°C
2%
18°C
13%
19°C
28%
20°C
24%
21°C
27%
22°C
16%
23°C
5%
24°C or higher
7%
19°C 28%
21°C 27%
22°C 16%
20°C 14%
NEW
NEW
May 3, 2026
14°C or below
$278 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$10 Vol.
1%
16°C
$21 Vol.
1%
17°C
$217 Vol.
2%
18°C
$384 Vol.
13%
19°C
$5 Vol.
28%
20°C
$7 Vol.
24%
21°C
$1 Vol.
27%
22°C
$0 Vol.
16%
23°C
$16 Vol.
5%
24°C or higher
$27 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the latest INMET and CPTEC forecast model runs projecting a high temperature near 19°C in São Paulo on May 3, driven by an advancing cold air mass from the south introducing widespread cloud cover and isolated morning showers that limit daytime heating. After recent warmer days with highs above 27°C, this frontal boundary introduces uncertainty, with ensemble models diverging by 2–3°C due to variable cloud persistence and timing of precipitation—key differentiators between 18–22°C outcomes, as fuller sun could push toward 21–22°C while prolonged overcast favors 18–19°C. Climatological May averages hover around 23°C, but autumnal polar outbreaks often suppress peaks; watch daily INMET updates for refined guidance ahead of resolution based on official airport station readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 1, 2026, 12:19 AM ET
Volume
$968End Date
May 3, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 12:19 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the latest INMET and CPTEC forecast model runs projecting a high temperature near 19°C in São Paulo on May 3, driven by an advancing cold air mass from the south introducing widespread cloud cover and isolated morning showers that limit daytime heating. After recent warmer days with highs above 27°C, this frontal boundary introduces uncertainty, with ensemble models diverging by 2–3°C due to variable cloud persistence and timing of precipitation—key differentiators between 18–22°C outcomes, as fuller sun could push toward 21–22°C while prolonged overcast favors 18–19°C. Climatological May averages hover around 23°C, but autumnal polar outbreaks often suppress peaks; watch daily INMET updates for refined guidance ahead of resolution based on official airport station readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$968End Date
May 3, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 12:19 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the latest INMET and CPTEC forecast model runs projecting a high temperature near 19°C in São Paulo on May 3, driven by an advancing cold air mass from the south introducing widespread cloud cover and isolated morning showers that limit daytime heating. After recent warmer days with highs above 27°C, this frontal boundary introduces uncertainty, with ensemble models diverging by 2–3°C due to variable cloud persistence and timing of precipitation—key differentiators between 18–22°C outcomes, as fuller sun could push toward 21–22°C while prolonged overcast favors 18–19°C. Climatological May averages hover around 23°C, but autumnal polar outbreaks often suppress peaks; watch daily INMET updates for refined guidance ahead of resolution based on official airport station readings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions