Trader consensus on Polymarket evenly splits at 50% across 18°C or below, 19°C, and 20°C for Tel Aviv's May 3 high temperature, mirroring substantial uncertainty in short-range forecasts from the Israel Meteorological Service (IMS) and global models like GFS and ECMWF. Recent IMS data shows May 1 highs at 22°C under partly cloudy skies—cooler than the typical early May average of 24–26°C—driven by northerly winds and lingering cooler air masses from a wetter March. Differing model ensembles highlight key variables: potential cloud cover increases (up to 80% precip chance in some runs) and sea breeze intensification could cap peaks at 18–19°C, while clearer conditions favor 20°C. New 00Z and 12Z model updates expected within 24 hours may clarify steering patterns and temperature anomalies.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on May 3?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on May 3?
25°C 46%
26°C 24%
24°C 23%
27°C 6%
NEW
NEW
May 3, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
1%
20°C
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
2%
23°C
4%
24°C
23%
25°C
46%
26°C
24%
27°C
6%
28°C or higher
3%
25°C 46%
26°C 24%
24°C 23%
27°C 6%
NEW
NEW
May 3, 2026
18°C or below
$424 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$59 Vol.
1%
20°C
$69 Vol.
1%
21°C
$133 Vol.
1%
22°C
$274 Vol.
2%
23°C
$335 Vol.
4%
24°C
$259 Vol.
23%
25°C
$334 Vol.
46%
26°C
$176 Vol.
24%
27°C
$88 Vol.
6%
28°C or higher
$181 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket evenly splits at 50% across 18°C or below, 19°C, and 20°C for Tel Aviv's May 3 high temperature, mirroring substantial uncertainty in short-range forecasts from the Israel Meteorological Service (IMS) and global models like GFS and ECMWF. Recent IMS data shows May 1 highs at 22°C under partly cloudy skies—cooler than the typical early May average of 24–26°C—driven by northerly winds and lingering cooler air masses from a wetter March. Differing model ensembles highlight key variables: potential cloud cover increases (up to 80% precip chance in some runs) and sea breeze intensification could cap peaks at 18–19°C, while clearer conditions favor 20°C. New 00Z and 12Z model updates expected within 24 hours may clarify steering patterns and temperature anomalies.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 1, 2026, 12:37 AM ET
Volume
$2,333End Date
May 3, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 12:37 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket evenly splits at 50% across 18°C or below, 19°C, and 20°C for Tel Aviv's May 3 high temperature, mirroring substantial uncertainty in short-range forecasts from the Israel Meteorological Service (IMS) and global models like GFS and ECMWF. Recent IMS data shows May 1 highs at 22°C under partly cloudy skies—cooler than the typical early May average of 24–26°C—driven by northerly winds and lingering cooler air masses from a wetter March. Differing model ensembles highlight key variables: potential cloud cover increases (up to 80% precip chance in some runs) and sea breeze intensification could cap peaks at 18–19°C, while clearer conditions favor 20°C. New 00Z and 12Z model updates expected within 24 hours may clarify steering patterns and temperature anomalies.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,333End Date
May 3, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 12:37 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket evenly splits at 50% across 18°C or below, 19°C, and 20°C for Tel Aviv's May 3 high temperature, mirroring substantial uncertainty in short-range forecasts from the Israel Meteorological Service (IMS) and global models like GFS and ECMWF. Recent IMS data shows May 1 highs at 22°C under partly cloudy skies—cooler than the typical early May average of 24–26°C—driven by northerly winds and lingering cooler air masses from a wetter March. Differing model ensembles highlight key variables: potential cloud cover increases (up to 80% precip chance in some runs) and sea breeze intensification could cap peaks at 18–19°C, while clearer conditions favor 20°C. New 00Z and 12Z model updates expected within 24 hours may clarify steering patterns and temperature anomalies.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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